Reefer container freight rates have risen sharply through 2021, but in contrast to dry cargo rates, are forecast to rise further in 2022, driven by catch up on North-South routes, according to Drewry’s recently published Reefer Shipping Annual Review and Forecast 2021/22 report.

Drewry’s Global Reefer Container Freight Rate Index, a weighted average of rates across the top 15 reefer intensive deepsea trade routes, rose 32% over the year to 2Q21 and by the end of 3Q21 these gains are expected to reach as much as 50% (see chart). But these advances are dwarfed by the recent surge in dry container freight rates which have seen average container carrier unit revenues more than double over the same period.

The resurgence in reefer freight rates has not been uniform across all trades. Pricing recovery has been particularly strong on the main East-West routes, where vessel capacity conditions have been noticeably tight. But North-South trades have generally seen less price inflation, particularly on export routes from WCSA, Central America and Southern Africa.

“In contrast to dry container freight rates which are expected to decline in 2022 as trade conditions normalise, reefer container freight rates are forecast to continue rising as price inflation feeds into North-South routes when long term contract rates are renewed,” said Drewry’s head of reefer shipping research Philip Gray. “Most reefer cargo on these trades moves on long term contracts.”

The key driver of reefer freight rate inflation has been capacity related, as perishables shippers have competed with higher paying dry freight BCOs for scarce containership slots, despite ample reefer plug capacity provision. Meanwhile, continued disruption across container supply chains has led to acute shortages of reefer container equipment, already challenged by the particularly imbalanced nature of reefer trades.

“We believe that these conditions are short term and will self-correct as trade normalises from mid-2022,” added Gray. “However, we expect reefer container equipment availability to remain an issue for certain trades during their peak seasons, as the global fleet is not expected to keep pace with rising cargo demand, despite record output of newbuild containers.”

These conditions have provided short term reprieve to specialised reefer vessels, as some BCOs have returned to the mode seeking relief from congested container supply chains. But despite these developments Drewry estimates that the specialised reefer vessel’s share of the perishables trade fell to 12% in 2020 and is expected to decline further into single figures over the next few years.

Hence, despite a 0.4% decline in global seaborne perishables trade in 2020 to 132 million tonnes, containership reefer liftings advanced 0.3% to 5.4 million teu. Further modal share gains and buoyant cargo demand will see containerised reefer traffic expand at a faster pace than dry cargo trade from 2022.

The contraction in overall seaborne perishables trade in 2020 was much milder than for dry cargo, demonstrating the stronger resilience of reefer trades to economic shock. The trade was particularly impacted by a shuttered hospitality sector which reduced demand for deciduous fruit, fresh vegetables and frozen potatoes, while Covid-19 containment measures cut crop production and fish catches. Meanwhile, an outbreak of fusarium TR4 disease in the Philippines weakened growth in banana trades. But cargo demand was supported by a booming pork trade, owing to African Swine Fever driven imports into China.

Seaborne reefer traffic picked up through 1H21, expanding 4.8% YoY, led by meat, citrus and exotics trades but is not expected to expand at the same pace as dry cargo through the remainder of the year as it is not recovering from as deep a contraction in 2020.

“A combination of buoyant cargo growth and tight capacity conditions will continue to support reefer container freight rates and specialised vessel charter earnings,” concluded Gray. “However, charter rates for larger reefer vessels that have been in particularly high demand of late are expected to wane as capacity conditions ease.”
Source: Drewry

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Reefer container freight rates to outgun dry cargo rates in 2022

You might be mistaken for thinking that I am referring to the typically British weather that we have had recently, whereby what could have been a gloriously sunny summer has been interrupted by biblical rains and high winds.

Alas not, as awkwardly British as it would be to talk about the weather, there are more interesting things at work in the world of freight and commodities. Nowhere is that more true than in the iron ore market.

After the major grades of iron ore futures contracts hit the dizzying heights of over $220 prices are have now tumbled over $60 lower than their peak in May, and around $50 lower than 2 weeks ago.

It has been a long time coming, with predictions of over-speculation and unsustainable prices haunting the iron ore market for month after month. We have all read the news clippings noting new restrictions on steel production, emissions concerns, and price manipulation statements, but like water off a duck’s back the market endured.

Yet it seems that all of the statements about steel production curbs, mill shutdowns to reduce emissions, and a slowing Chinese economy after it had come roaring back to life white hot post pandemic has dumped ice cold sheet rain onto sentiment.

But it hasn’t only been the iron ore market that has been caught in a monsoon without a brolly in sight; it seems that the contagion has also spread to the oil market. After a carefully choreographed recovery, one might have been mistaken that we were watching an OPEC production of Cinderella, with the shoe of production perfectly fitting the needs of demand, living happily ever after in the bliss of $100 a barrel.

The truth of the matter is that this is more a story about the ugly sisters – those OPEC nations who have been pushing for higher production quotas and finally got their way recently. If you add virus concerns then it will come as no surprise that Brent prices dropped below $70. The new OPEC+ deal have the UAE a surprise 332,000 b/d boost to its production level, Saudi Arabia and Russia will also be granted 500,000 b/d baseline increases, while Iraq and Kuwait will get 150,000 b/d rises, all accounting to some 2 million bbl increase by the end of the year.

If you needed more evidence of the weaknesses in the oil market, all you need to do is take a look at the crude tanker market that has been languishing in the doldrums for something positive to happen. With VLCC rates static around the WS30 level for months, they have been channelling a rain-soaked Leyton Orient vs Crawley Town rather than Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich.

But as in normal life, there are always exceptions to the rule, that smug know-it-all who checked the weather forecast and standing there in their wellies and anorak like a human barometer. The dry freight market has been able to weather the storm well, with the Capes, Panamax and Supras all at least tripling rates since the start of 2021. So far, the market has been pretty water tight, but can it keep out the factors that are driving down other markets? Tight ship supply has given the market stronger fundamentals than other markets, or is this just a setup for a classic shipping overbuilding programme?

What is sure is that a deluge has been dumped onto the iron ore and oil markets with more storm clouds on the horizon. As these potentially soggy factors build up it could eventually get to a stage where even the largest amount of rice isn’t going to dry out this commodity phone.

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Source: Freight Investor Services

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FIS: Ship Shape: When It Rains It Pours

The tanker market’s demise so far this year, is reflected in the S&P market as well. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings hovering at the bottom of the cycle according to analysts’ consensus, as the oil and products inventories destocking cycle is coming to an end”.

According to Intermodal’s George Kallianiotis (Valuation Department), “tankers Sale & Purchase transactions in number of vessels have underperformed those in dry and containers, however asset values have appreciated regardless, as expectations for a recovery tracking oil demand growth and elevated steel prices have disconnected asset values from the freight market. We expect the trend to continue in the coming months, with further asset value appreciation particularly if a market recovery takes place before the end of the year. Last but not least, over the past two months, we observe tanker deals to be concentrated on the products tonnage, with MRs attracting increased interest”.

Source: Intermodal

“Below we present a brief overview of the S&P transactions that took place since Q2 2021 up to late July 2021. During April 2021, more than 50 deals took place in the Tanker sector. Aframax tankers contributed close to 36% of the total deals whilst around half of them were in the 5-year-old mark up to resale. MR Tankers (including Handysize vessels) were responsible for an around 23% of the entire deal landscape whilst VLCCs hold a slightly bigger proportion; most of them in both segments were older than 10-year-old. Finally, Panamax and Suezmax vessels were the less preferable holding less than 15% of the recorded deals”, Intermodal said.

The shipbroker added that “during May 2021, transactions decreased by at least 50% compared to April 2021. The deals were equally distributed across all segments with circa 5 vessels corresponding to each one. It should be noted that most of the vessels that changed hands were older than 10 years. In June 2021, we witnessed a further reduction in the number of transactions by an additional 50% comparing to May 2021 with slightly more than 10 deals taking place; half of the vessels that changed hands were MR tankers. During July 2021, contrary to the past couple of months, transactions increased close to the number that was recorded the fifth month of the year. The deals were congregated in the MR, Aframax and VLCC segment with a rather equal number of vessels to each one whilst Panamax and Suezmax vessels were again the less preferable”, Kallianiotis concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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Tankers Demand Falls in Line With Freight Market

Aggregates carrier INDI NURMATALIA 07 with 2,200 tons of cement on board ran aground on coral reefs at night Aug 7, while approaching Manokwari, West Papua, Indonesia. As of morning Aug 10, the ship was still aground. Some reefs are damaged or might be damaged, so locals demand to detain the ship after she’s freed from reefs, to assess damages and guarantee compensation is paid.

New FleetMon Vessel Safety Risk Reports Available: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/vessel-risk-rating/

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https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2021/34833/cement-carrier-stuck-coral-reefs-west-papua/

Oil spill occurred on Aug 7 at oil terminal pier operated by Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Yuzhnaya Ozereevka, Novorossiysk, Russia, Black sea. Oil spill covered some 200 sq meters of harbor basin around pier. Spill was fenced off with booms, cleansing followed. In initial news, pipe or loading arm burst was mentioned, it was said also, that at the time of an accident tanker was loading crude, but ship’s name wasn’t revealed. As of Aug 9, there was no definite description of an accident in latest updates, except that the tanker was identified as Greek Suezmax MINERVA SYMPHONY. It is highly likely, that tanker will be blamed for accident, whether tanker was guilty or not.

New FleetMon Vessel Safety Risk Reports Available: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/vessel-risk-rating/

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https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2021/34821/oil-spill-novorossiysk-circumstances-remain-unknow/

global demand for major commodities to being a drag on growth, with July’s customs data confirming the weakening trend for imports of crude oil, iron ore and copper.

The exception to the trend was coal, but the sharp gain in July’s imports of the polluting fuel are more a result of China having to go the seaborne market because of domestic policies that curbed local output.

China, the world’s biggest importer of crude oil, brought in 41.24 million tonnes in July, equivalent to 9.71 million barrels per day (bpd), according to official customs data released on Aug. 7.

This was down from June’s 9.76 million bpd, slightly above May’s 9.65 million bpd, and below April’s 9.82 million bpd.

July was the fourth consecutive month that crude oil imports were below 10 million bpd, a far cry from most of 2020, when imports surged from May to November as refiners stocked up on crude bought cheaply at the height of the crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a brief price war between top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia.

At that time imports rose as high as a record 12.94 million bpd in June last year, but apart from a brief spike higher in March this year, 2021 has been a story of declining crude purchases by China.

Crude imports for the first seven months of this year are 5.6% below that for the same period in 2020.

That percentage decline may accelerate in coming months given the strong imports in the second half of 2020 will give a higher base for comparison.

Imports of natural gas, both from pipelines and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), also declined in July to 9.34 million tonnes from June’s 10.21 million tonnes.

However, this is more likely related to a scarcity of available cargoes of spot LNG as demand for the super-chilled fuel soars across Asia to meet rising electricity consumption during the summer air-conditioning peak.

Soft metals
Among metals, iron ore imports fell for a fourth consecutive month, with 88.51 million tonnes of the steel raw material arriving in July, down from 89.42 million in June and some 21% below the record of 122.65 million from July last year.

Imports for the first seven months of the year are now 1.5% below the same period last year.

It could be argued that weather-related supply issues in top exporter Australia and coronavirus-related production impacts in number two exporter Brazil were behind some of the weakness in iron ore imports, but this was largely a first quarter story.

Rather it appears that official curbs on steel output are finally filtering through to demand for iron ore.

Given that China buys about 70% of global seaborne volumes, it’s little surprise that the iron ore price has retreated sharply in recent weeks, shedding about 27% since a record high in May to end at $171.30 a tonne, according to assessments by commodity price reporting agency Argus.

Copper imports also fell for a fourth straight month, with China buying 424,280 tonnes of unwrought metal, down from June’s 428,437 tonnes and only slightly more than half the record 762,211 tonnes from July last year.

The release of 50,000 tonnes from China’s state reserves and a loss of some momentum in key manufacturing indexes are most likely behind the softer imports of the industrial metal.

Additionally a change in import rules to allow purchases of higher-grade scrap copper also likely weighed on imports of refined copper, and since this a structural change, it may continue to have an impact in coming months.

Coal was the exception to general softness in China’s imports of major commodities, with shipments in July reaching a 7-month high of 30.18 million tonnes, from 28.39 million in June and 26.1 million in July 2020.

However, for the first seven months, coal imports are still down 15% from the same period in 2020, reflecting that the strength is a recent phenomenon and is related to a loss of domestic output amid mine closures for safety inspections.

With China now re-opening mines, and the summer power demand peak unlikely to last beyond August, the risk is that coal imports moderate in coming months.

Overall, the July trade data shows that China’s commodity imports have moderated from the robust levels associated with last year’s stimulus as part of Beijing’s efforts to boost the economy in the wake of the pandemic.

It’s likely that the rest of 2021 will see imports more around levels recorded in 2019, prior to the pandemic, rather than in the second half of 2020, when the stimulus was in full swing.

This means that they will remain solid, but won’t be the engine that drove commodity prices sharply higher in the second half of last year and the first half of this year.

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https://www.marinelink.com/news/china-goes-driver-brake-crude-oil-iron-489723

The U.S. Navy’s new aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) on Monday underwent its third explosive event off the coast of Jacksonville, Fla., rounding out the ship’s Full Ship Shock Trials (FSST) and validating its shock hardness and ability to sustain operations in a simulated combat environment using live ordnance. During the four-month testing evolution, the first-in-class aircraft carrier withstood the impact of three 40,000-pound underwater blasts, released at distances progressively closer to the ship.

“The Navy designed the Ford-class carrier using advanced computer modeling methods, testing and analysis to ensure the ships are hardened to withstand harsh battle conditions,” said Capt. Brian Metcalf, manager for the Navy’s future aircraft carrier program office, PMS 378.

“These shock trials have tested the resiliency of Ford and her crew and provided extensive data used in the process of validating the shock hardness of the ship.”

Metcalf said that the goal of the tests is to ensure that Ford’s integrated combat systems perform as designed and added “the tests demonstrated—and proved to the crew, fairly dramatically—that the ship will be able to withstand formidable shocks and continue to operate under extreme conditions.”

Built by Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News Shipbuilding division in Newport News, Va., CVN 78 is returning to the Tidewater area for a six month Planned Incremental Availability (PIA). As the PIA begins, teams will conduct additional detailed inspections, assess any damage sustained during the shots, and continue modernization and maintenance work in advance of workups for the ship’s deployment in 2022, the Navy said.

Rear Adm. James P. Downey, program executive officer for aircraft carriers, rode the ship during the first and third shock evolutions, and observed the historic trials, first-hand. “FSST has proven a critical investment in the Ford-class development,” Downey said. “The ship and crew performed exceptionally in these very strenuous conditions and continued their operations throughout the shock events, demonstrating the ship’s ‘fight-through’ capability.”

“We’re designing and building these aircraft carriers to sail in some of the world’s most contested security environments. So when you think about the threats to warships posed by non-contact blasts and the number of sea mines in the inventories of navies around the world, the gravity and consequence of these shock trials really come into focus. The Navy’s ongoing investment in the design, including this modeling, will help ensure the resiliency of Ford’s integrated, mission critical systems in underway threat environments.”

Downey added that the trial’s ultimate success hinged on the extraordinary performance of ship’s force, in coordination with crews on several surface and aviation platforms that support FSST.

“The countdown to the actual shot is choreographed down to the smallest detail, and the coordination between the ship and the other surface and aviation platforms, as well as the on-scene environmental scientists has been impressive.”

Balancing combatant testing and environmental mitigation
FSSTs are complex evolutions, conducted during a precise operating schedule in compliance with exacting environmental mitigation requirements, respecting known migration patterns of marine life and protected species. Ford’s shock trials required exacting coordination across multiple Navy/Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) organizations and experienced FSST teams.

Prior to each shot, the FSST team notified mariners to avoid the test area, and implemented extensive protocols to ensure the safety of military and civilian personnel participating in the operation. A team of more than a dozen scientists, biologists, and observers were assigned to Ford, nearby support vessels, and observation aircraft. Observers used high-powered lenses to detect marine life at great distances, through ocean waves and white caps.

During the sequence of events leading up to each shot, crews operated in a heightened state of watchful readiness in anticipation of the ultimate go/no-go decision, which had to be made between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. on the day of the scheduled blast.

Ford’s Commanding Officer, Capt. Paul Lanzilotta, was the tactical commander that ordered the go/no-go decision, based on the interplay of several crucial variables, such as ship and crew readiness, weather, and sea state, as well as pre-set environmental mitigation measures, designed to protect any marine life spotted within the test area.

“Safety was always the driving consideration throughout the shock trials,” Lanzilotta said. “So, once we were ready and in position, pausing the countdown to the shot could really test our focus and persistence.”

“In spite of months of detailed preparation, you can’t always count on the weather,” he said. “But the crew hung in there, and showed the great tenacity and professionalism reflective of their pride in our warship.”

“So many pieces had to fall into place to execute Ford’s FSSTs within the testing window,” Capt. Lanzilotta said. “Success required equal measures of technical expertise, trust, and courage—traits you’ll find in great supply on Warship 78 and throughout the entire Ford Shock Trial Team. These shots have only strengthened my confidence in the durability of this ship, and the excellence of the crew who came out here to own it, and absolutely crushed it.”

The U.S. Navy has conducted FSSTs over several decades, most recently for the Littoral Combat Ships USS Jackson (LCS 6) and USS Milwaukee (LCS 5) in 2016; as well as on the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19) in 2008, the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp (LHD 1) in 1990, and the guided missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay (CG 53) in 1987. The last aircraft carrier to execute FSST was USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) in 1987.

The Navy conducted the Gerald R. Ford shock trial testing in accordance with Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Instruction 9072.2, and as mandated by the National Defense Authorization Act of 2016. The first two shots of the FSST sequence occurred on June 18 and July 16.

USS Gerald R. Ford is the newest and most advanced aircraft carrier in the U.S. Navy. The ship closed out a successful 18-month Post Delivery Test & Trials period in April, during which the crew completed all required testing, accomplished planned improvements and maintenance ahead of schedule, and learned valuable lessons to increase the reliability of Ford-Class systems. At the same time, the ship also served as the sole East Coast platform for conducting carrier qualifications.

The Gerald R. Ford-class represents the first major design investment in aircraft carriers since the 1960s. CVN 78 is engineered to support new technologies and a modern air wing essential to deterring and defeating near-peer adversaries in a complex maritime environment.

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https://www.marinelink.com/news/video-uss-gerald-r-ford-completes-shock-489753