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In April 2022, Global Maritime Forum called for young professionals across the global maritime industry to participate in this year’s Future Maritime Leaders essay competition. We asked them how the maritime industry may significantly improve its approach to human sustainability and what issues and challenges need to be addressed before 2030.

“The human element is an essential condition for the global maritime industry to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.”

We received 188 essays from young maritime leaders from 27 different countries, with a large majority of them from Asia (74%). Countries with the most submissions included India (104 submissions), Philippines (19 submissions), and Greece (11 submissions). In terms of gender ratio, 32 participants were female and 156 were male.

Even if the essay participants came from both onshore and offshore, the vast majority of essays focused on human sustainability at sea. The essays focused on five themes: a broad discussion of human sustainability (44 essays), human wellbeing and human rights (44 essays), future skills & competences (21 essays), diversity, equity & inclusion (13 essays), and human safety (13 essays), and other (53 essays).

Figure 1. Geographical distribution of 2022 essay competition submissions

Addressing overall human sustainability – across topics

The human element is an essential condition for the global maritime industry to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, in addition to the two major transformations of decarbonization and digitalization. Therefore, addressing human sustainability challenges is an imperative task for the global maritime industry.

In total, more than 40 essays discussed human sustainability more broadly, as an emerging call from young members of the industry – below the age of 30 – of much needed change following the ongoing crew change crisis, changing Covid-19 regulations, sexual harassment, piracy, human safety concerns, inadequate and outdated training setups, poor mental and physical health on board, concerns of long working hours, payment issues and so on. Many essays have put the general wellbeing of seafarers at heart, paying attention to their limited personal and family time, crew health, skill gap, and their basic human rights.

Figure 2. Human sustainability issues addressed in submissions

Multiple essays call for cross-sector collaborative approaches to address the most urgent challenges. Several young leaders for instance called for open digital platforms focused on improving human wellbeing, human rights, and for collectively working to upgrade skills and competences as well as foster a common culture aiming at collectively pursuing more safe working environments for all.

A strong focus on improving human wellbeing at sea – and securing human rights

The majority of the 44 essays addressing human rights and human wellbeing zoomed in on the current state of physical and mental health at sea. Fatigue, exhaustion, and burn-out was discussed in 12 essays, whilst the other 32 essays focused on the challenges posed by the crew change crisis, working hours, and shore leave. Many essays also pointed out that isolation from family, lack of rest time, stress, anxiety, and discrimination are making life at sea increasingly challenging. The lack of prevention and support for mental health issues, combined with poor internet access, are key challenges that need to be urgently and collectively addressed by the industry.

Multiple essays urged the industry to work together on collectively defining and identifying what kind of training is needed (for employees and their management) to ensure crew wellbeing with a particular focus on mental health. Notably the focus should be on how to ensure adequate prevention and response to stress, anxiety, crisis, and suicide thoughts. Practical proposals included the creation of a global mental health hotline, supported by an openly available online platform for training on mental health and human wellbeing to ensure adequate prevention and response.

Furthermore, several essays called for a much more flexible and fluid rotation between sea and shore as a means to improve on overall wellbeing, but more importantly to be able to address the changing needs amongst employees during different stages of their careers, especially when some seafarers would need to be located closer to home. Such proposals mostly focused on the importance of these rotations being implemented for sea-based personnel; but other essays also noted the value of sea-rotations for onshore personnel, which could help build and sustain a ‘one company’ culture between sea and shore.

Finally, in order to address the lack of compliance with work-rest regulations, an open, independent, and collective reporting system was proposed by three essays to ensure transparency on actual working and watch hours performed on board each vessel. One essay proposed the use of blockchain technology to adequately track working hours and payment data of seafarers, to secure fair payment and data validity.

Calling out the industry to improve on Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

Among the 13 essays discussing different aspects of diversity, equity, and Inclusion, gender imbalance at sea remains the predominant concern. Several essays call out the industry for discriminating female seafarers. Some companies are still reluctant to employ female seafarers, while multiple essays highlight the challenges of sexual harassment and safety threats faced by female seafarers. Other criticisms focused on companies failing to provide female cabins, sanitary bins, and proper personal protective equipment for female seafarers – and a generally safe environment for women on board ships. Other essays called out the industry for taking no responsibility in making it easier for seafarers to balance work and family – or start a family. Most essays pointed at the same root causes, including that the industry was built by and for male employees and that not enough effort has been put into making the industry more attractive to different types of employees.

Figure 3. Diversity. Equity & Inclusion related issues addressed in submissions

Enhancing human safety at sea

Human safety was another important concern that was the primary focus of 13 essays, while also being addressed more broadly in multiple other essays. Working conditions on board, including noise, bright lights, heat, vessel movement, and rigid watch schedules, combined with intense and long work hours were pointed out to directly and indirectly lead to operational accidents that potentially endanger lives, property, and even the marine environment. Three essays specifically discussed the importance of crew safety on the journey towards decarbonization.

All 13 essays call for safer work environments for everyone, including female seafarers. Some essays called for better design of living spaces on board, as well as setting up recreational areas and improved social activities, in order to cope with safety risks caused by fatigue. Multiple essays further advocated to strengthen overall marine safety training and research as well as align maritime safety training standards with other international marine disciplines led by the IMO, while another essay highlighted psychological training and improved emergency drills to prepare seafarers for safety crisis. Two essays suggested a monitoring system for seafarers to report accidents, safety concerns, and violations like sexual harassment to an independent global entity to ensure seafarer’s wellbeing and a safe working environment.

Who will take charge for securing the necessary skills and competences of the future?

In the context of a rapidly evolving socio-economic and technological environment, outdated operational technologies in the maritime industry as well as skill gaps (both hard and soft skills) among maritime practitioners were discussed in more than 20 essays.

With young talents from Gen Z (1997-2012) and Millennials (1981-1996) amounting to more than 70% of the total global work force by 2030, the values of these younger generations and how they might clash with the traditional values of the maritime industry was discussed in seven essays. Not just in their approach to work in general, but in particular with their new skills and competences.

Several essays were concerned about the lack of digital skills and competences across the industry, and called for a more ambitious, collective focus on securing much needed upskilling across the board. Some essays proposed a more extended use of virtual reality technologies in training, education, and meeting activities overall, which they argue could enable more efficient and productive onboard communication. One essay suggested to incorporate coding and data analysis into overall maritime training to prepare young talents for digitalization and automation.

Advancing a people-centered future through collaborative effort

When looking at all the submitted essays, it is encouraging how human sustainability is not just an abstract concept for young talents below the age of 30 but is reflected in where they choose to seek employment and who they will eventually decide to work with and for. This is a shift we are already seeing now, with 80% of seafarers in a recent survey conducted by Sailor’s Society listing “how they treat seafarers” as the most important factor when choosing which shipping company to work for (for the remaining, 17% listed “pay” while 3% listed “access to Wi-Fi”).

Being able to provide a more humanly sustainable work environment before 2030, however, requires maritime industry leaders and policymakers to now engage further with these young professionals and changemakers in finding new and more ambitious ways to create a more ethical, human, and attractive maritime industry.

Global shipping container suppliers China International Marine Containers and Maersk Container Industry in a joint statement on Thursday said they have abandoned a merger plan, citing significant regulatory challenges.

China International Marine Containers (CIMC) in September had agreed to buy the Danish shipping company AP Moeller – Maersk’s refrigerated containers maker for $987.3 million.

The U.S. Justice Department said the deal would have combined two of the world’s four suppliers of refrigerated shipping containers and further concentrated the global cold supply chain.

The Justice Department said it “would also have consolidated control of over 90% of insulated container box and refrigerated shipping container production worldwide in Chinese state-owned or state-controlled entities.”

Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, who heads the Justice Department’s antitrust division, said the acquisition could have led to “higher prices, lower quality, and less resiliency in global supply chains” and “would have cemented CIMC’s dominant position in an already consolidated industry and eliminated MCI as an innovative, independent competitor.”

Germany’s Federal Cartel Office said in December it also had opened an investigation into the effects the takeover of Maersk Container Industry (MCI) by CIMC could have on markets.

Maersk said it was “unfortunate” the deal would not move forward, adding it “will now assess the best structural set-up to ensure the long-term development of the business.”

Founded by Maersk in 1991, MCI employs 2,300 people in China and Denmark.

Source: https://www.marinelink.com/news/shipping-container-suppliers-abandon-499026

Following significant reduction in the threat of piracy in the Indian Ocean region, the maritime industry organisations have submitted a notification to the next meeting of IMO’s Maritime Safety Committee (MSC-106) which is scheduled to start on 31 October 2022.

As per the attached submission, it has been decided that the High-Risk Area (HRA) in the Indian Ocean will be removed at 0001 UTC on 1 January 2023.

Even though the piracy related incidents in the Indian Ocean have declined, the conflict in Yemen and increased tensions (especially off Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf) have introduced other security threats to vessels operating in the region.

Members trading in that region are strongly recommended to consult Maritime Global Security website, comply with BMP5 procedures and ensure that their ships are hardened prior to entering the HRA.

Members are also recommended to refer to the latest US Maritime Advisory for the region, register the ship’s transit on MSCHOA website and send daily reports to the UKMTO to ensure that the military is aware of their presence in the region, and use the Maritime Security Transit Corridor (MSTC) when transiting through the Gulf of Aden, Bab Al Mandeb, Southern Red Sea, and associated waters.

Source: https://www.standard-club.com/knowledge-news/removal-of-the-high-risk-area-hra-in-the-indian-ocean-from-1-january-2023-4552/

The Joint Coordination Center based in Turkey overseeing the export of grains from Ukraine announced a revision to the shipping route for the Black Sea Grain Initiative to further aid the movement of ships. As the first month of the program comes to a close, everyone agrees it has been a success and the latest effort is designed to further facilitate the safe movement of ships from the three Ukrainian ports.

“This route has been adjusted following an initial three weeks of operations. It allows for shorter transit in the maritime humanitarian corridor and easier planning for the shipping industry,” the JCC announced. The changes are effective immediately starting August 26.

The new route is 320 nautical miles long and connects the three Ukrainian ports, Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny, with the inspection areas inside Turkish territorial waters. The JCC explains that the maritime humanitarian corridor, which makes part of this route, extends from the boundary of Ukrainian territorial seas to a southern waypoint. The new coordinates have been disseminated through the international navigation system NAVTEX with all vessels advised to alter this planning to follow the new path.

Under the UN-brokered agreement which is being implemented by Turkey, the JCC notes that “no military ship, aircraft, or unmanned aerial vehicle may approach within a radius of 10 nautical miles of any vessel engaged in the Initiative and transiting the corridor. The procedures state that any commercial vessel encountering provocations or threats while transiting the corridor should report immediately to the JCC.”

In the first three weeks of the program, data from the UN’s Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Center shows that a total of 87 voyages have been approved by the JCC, with seven currently pending. A total of 39 voyages were approved outbound from the three ports. The majority of the vessels (23) are operating in and out of Chornomorsk with a total of 845,496 metric tons of foodstuffs having been exported from Ukraine. At the current pace of exports, they will approach the 1 million ton mark by the end of August.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres concluded his recent visit to Ukraine with a visit to first-hand see the export operations calling the food leaving Ukraine a vital supply to the world. “A powerful demonstration of what can be achieved, in even the most devastating of contexts, when we put people first,” he wrote in a social media posting.

In the last two and a half weeks, a total of 26 vessels have proceeded inbound to Ukraine with another 22 approved for the voyage and currently 14 have completed or are underway on their round trip after loading. Nearly two-thirds of the exports so far have been corn, but wheat is beginning to depart with already over 100,000 tons having been loaded for export. Other exports include soybeans, sugar beets, and sunflower seeds, oil, and meal.

As another demonstration of the importance of the efforts, the UN highlights that the exports have already gone to a dozen different countries. The list includes China, Djibouti, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Republic of Korea, Romania, and Turkey.

The current pace of the operation shows that six to seven vessels a day are being inspected and cleared by the JCC in Turkey. Guterres call all aspects a success saying he was confident that it would make a critical difference in getting food supplies from Ukraine to impoverished nations.

JCC issued the revised route for the bulkers traveling to and from Ukraine

Source: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/ukraine-black-sea-corridor-revised-to-make-passages-easier-and-shorter

Russian river-sea product tanker KARAKUZ collided with small boat in Dardanelles off Burhanli at around 1800 UTC Aug 25, while transiting the Strait in southern direction, en route from Novorossiysk to Perama, Greece. 2 people in boat weren’t injured, boat sustained some damages. Tanker moved further south and was anchored at Kumkale anchorage, southern Dardanelles. Remained at anchor as of 0330 UTC Aug 26.

Source: https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/39297/russian-tanker-collided-boat-dardanelles/

The use of biofuel continues to expand across the shipping industry with TotalEnergies Marine Fuels reporting it completed both the first refueling of a COSCO Shipping Lines containership with sustainable marine biofuel in Singapore as well as its first fueling for a containership. The refueling, which was completed last month, comes as competing suppliers seek to expand the availability of biofuel in Singapore, which is the world’s largest bunker market.

The 4,250 TEU containership COSCO Houston was bunkered with TotalEnergies-supplied biofuel in Singapore waters, with a ship-to-ship transfer on July 11. The 49,900 dwt vessel, which was built 10 years ago, was supplied with Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) blended with 20 percent second-generation, waste-based and ISCC-certified Used Cooking Oil Methyl Ester (UCOME). The vessel was sailing to Jakarta, Indonesia and as with others that have been supplied with the biofuel blend, it was able to use the fuel without any modifications to its fuel systems.

Total estimated that from a well-to-wake assessment, the biofuel will reduce GHG emissions by approximately 17 percent compared with conventional fuel oil. The use of biofuels was supported by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) and the involvement of local partners such as tank storage company, Vopak Terminals Singapore at Penjuru.

“This milestone bio-bunkering operation also further validates the important role of biofuels in decarbonizing conventional marine fuels, and the potential greenhouse gas reduction gains it can bring to existing vessels,” said Laura Ong, General Manager of Trading and Operations for Asia Pacific for TotalEnergies Marine Fuels.

Total started its biofuel operations in Singapore in March 2022 with the fueling of the MT Friendship, a 177,000 dwt bulk carrier owned by Seanergy Maritime Holdings and chartered by NYK Line to transport cargo provided by Anglo American. She was loaded with a 10 percent blend that was used during her two-way voyage between Singapore and South Africa. This was followed by the bunkering of a MOL-operated 19,900 dwt car and truck carrier, Heroic Ace. Like the COSCO containership, the car carrier received the second-generation 20 percent blend.

While biofuel has primarily been available in Europe, the competition for the fuel is starting to grow in Singapore. In July, a partnership between biofuel manufacturer GoodFuels and Japan’s ITOCHU also completed their first bunkering operation in Singapore. They supplied a blended VLSFO to the 12-year-old, 179,376 dwt bulker, the Frontier Explorer, during its port call on July 5 while it was sailing from Australia to India.

The emergence of biofuels in Singapore is seen as a clear sign that it is becoming an accepted near-term alternative that permits shipping companies to take immediate first steps at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the leading shipping companies have tested biofuel with all the results showing that it is a viable option for the world’s in-service fleets.

Source: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/biofuel-competition-in-singapore-as-totalenergies-fuels-cosco-boxship

A recent study published by the US Army War College looks at how geography constrained the Soviet military presence in the Indian Ocean and the lessons that can be drawn for China’s efforts to become an Indian Ocean power.

Geography has a big impact on the strategic dynamics of the Indian Ocean. It is largely enclosed on three sides with few maritime entry points. The Himalayas also cut off much of the Eurasian hinterland from access to the sea.

This makes it hard for militaries to get access. The semi-enclosed geography of the Indian Ocean creates a premium for naval powers that control the maritime chokepoints and the limited number of deep-water ports for essential logistical support.

There are similar constraints in projecting airpower. Aircraft can access Indian Ocean airspace from, say, Chinese territory only by flying over other countries. Within the region, the sheer size of the Indian Ocean makes it essential to have a network of local airfields for staging and support.

In the Cold War, the Soviets struggled to overcome these constraints. The Soviet Union had no direct access to the Indian Ocean by sea or air and few reliable regional partners. Its navy had to deploy to the Indian Ocean mostly from the Pacific, transiting the straits through Southeast Asia where vessels were subject to interdiction and tracking.

This had a significant impact on the Soviet naval presence. The long transit from Vladivostok to the Arabian Gulf meant that keeping one vessel on station required ships to spend around a third of their time in transit. Long transits also limited the deployment of smaller vessels. Logistical requirements meant that a majority of deployed Soviet vessels were support and other auxiliary vessels.

There were strong imperatives to obtain local bases. The Soviet Navy developed several facilities around the Horn of Africa, and where onshore support wasn’t available, they relied on floating bases in international waters. The quest for bases was pursued opportunistically and often meant relying on politically unstable partners. Access was far from guaranteed and they were evicted from several bases.

Although Soviet ships often outnumbered the US Navy’s in the Indian Ocean, the Soviet Navy didn’t achieve meaningful or lasting naval superiority across the region. The naval balance in favor of the Soviets was quickly reversed in times of crisis.

The composition of the Soviet fleet also differed considerably from the US’s with a large number of auxiliary vessels, including intelligence and research ships.

The Soviet air presence developed with several years’ lag. Operational access was also geographically constrained. Flight distances into the region were long, and aircraft operating from Soviet territory had to fly over other countries. This created a premium for access to local air bases.

The geographic constraints faced by China in the Indian Ocean mirror those faced by the Soviet Union.

For China, the Indian Ocean has secondary importance compared with the Pacific. But Beijing still has several strategic imperatives or missions in the Indian Ocean, starting with the protection of its crucial ocean supply lines for energy. But other missions are just as important in influencing the composition, size and locations of the Chinese military presence. These include protecting Chinese citizens and investments, bolstering soft-power influence, countering terrorism, collecting intelligence, supporting coercive diplomacy towards small countries, and enabling operations in a conflict environment. The People’s Liberation Army must be capable of responding to a range of contingencies.

The PLA Navy has a leading role in the PLA’s Indian Ocean presence, reflecting the imperatives of protecting supply lines and the political advantages of a relatively transient naval footprint.

The size and composition of Chinese naval deployments to the Indian Ocean have evolved. They now include an antipiracy taskforce, hydrographic-survey and intelligence-collection vessels, and submarines. But, although the presence has grown, China has so far been relatively incremental in its approach.

It’s possible that the PLA Navy’s presence could come to resemble the US Navy’s, if Beijing wants to protect the entirety of its Indian Ocean supply lines. That would be a major undertaking, requiring the sustained deployment of large numbers of vessels, including aircraft carriers and submarines, as well as land-based aircraft. It would require multiple naval and air bases in the region.

But Beijing may judge that protecting its supply lines against the US and India is impracticable. It may choose to focus on the Pacific while pursuing limited objectives in the Indian Ocean.

The PLA Navy’s presence in the Indian Ocean over the past decade has focused overwhelmingly on antipiracy, intelligence and naval diplomacy. These will likely continue to be a major focus and might evolve to include limited, coercive diplomacy (for example, disputes over fishing rights), as has been the case elsewhere. PLA Navy assets might be supplemented by vessels from other maritime agencies.

China may also develop additional capabilities to create local superiority; respond to a limited distant blockade; provide support for local interventions; or undertake limited sea-denial operations. All of these missions would be broadly analogous to the Soviet Union’s Indian Ocean strategy. These could provide options to respond to certain contingencies at a fraction of the cost of a full sea-control strategy.

As with the Soviets, constraints on China’s access create imperatives for local support facilities. But the nature and extent of China’s basing requirements would also depend on its overall strategy. Many needs could be satisfied by relying on a ‘places not bases’ approach of using commercial facilities while minimising the need for dedicated bases. But any significant and sustained Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean would likely require dedicated support facilities comparable to traditional bases.

China’s approach to securing local facilities is much more deliberate and comprehensive compared with the Soviet approach. China may be seeking to build what some analysts call strategic strong points as part of a network of supply, logistics and intelligence hubs across the Indian Ocean.

But whether that would yield assured access to support facilities under wartime conditions is uncertain. Despite many ‘feelers’ for facilities in the Indian Ocean region, no potential host country has offered permanent facilities to the PLA Navy (with the exception of Djibouti). Indeed, several potential hosts have pushed back on proposed port developments.

The port at Gwadar, Pakistan, is often identified as the most likely location of another Chinese naval base in the northwestern Indian Ocean (although it has not been used by the PLA). But any comprehensive Chinese naval presence would likely also require assured access to facilities in the southwestern, central and eastern Indian Ocean.

China also needs to develop its regional airpower capabilities. Support for sustained naval operations would require substantial airpower, including maritime surveillance and strike aircraft. But the PLA Air Force doesn’t have assured airfield access in the Indian Ocean, although it could potentially use the new 3,400-meter airfield at Dara Sakor, Cambodia. China’s lack of air capabilities in the Indian Ocean places it at a major tactical disadvantage. That could become a bottleneck limiting the PLA’s strategic power projection.

One clear lesson from the Cold War is that securing local bases can be costly and uncertain. China’s relationships with Pakistan and Sri Lanka demonstrate how much Beijing has to spend, even without securing assured access. Like the Soviet Union, China may find that relationships with some countries—particularly, corrupt and autocratic regimes—are less than reliable.

The Soviet experience also suggests that the size and composition of the PLA in the Indian Ocean will principally be a function of China’s unique interests in the region. It should not be assumed that China’s future military presence and security relationships will necessarily resemble those of the US.

Germany’s unionized port workers and the association representing the seaport operators agreed to terms for a new contract after one of the longest running labor disputes in Germany in decades. The tentative agreement came just three days before a cooling-off period imposed by the Hamburg Labor Court was due to expire and removes the threat of further strikes which have been disrupting operations in all the North Sea Ports since June.

“This is a very good result. Our most important goal was real inflation compensation so that employees were not left alone with the consequences of the galloping price increases. We succeeded in doing that,” said ver.di negotiator Maya Schwiegershausen-Güth after the final collective bargaining round which concluded on August 23. The union, which represents more than 12,000 workers including the major ports of Hamburg, Bremerhaven, and Wilhelmshaven, reports that it is recommending that members accept the agreement, which is due to be finalized on September 5.

The first of the so called “warning strikes” in decades was carried out by the union members on June 9 in an effort to put increased pressure on Zentralverband der deutschen Seehafenbetriebe (Association of German Seaport Operators) was talked stalled covering 58 collective bargaining agreements. In the following weeks, the trade union Ver.di (United Services Union) sought to escalate pressure further through a series of follow-up strikes.

The issue came to a head after seven failed rounds of negotiations when ZDS went to the labor court. Citing the broader damage to the economy and disruptions to the supply chain, the court ordered the two sides back to negotiating table and set a moratorium on further strikes until August 26.

According to the union, it took 10 rounds of negotiations but they finally reached mutually agreeable terms. Depending on their positions, workers in container operations will on average receive a 9.4 percent wage increase including bonuses retroactive to July 1. Workers at general cargo operations receive a smaller 7.9 percent increase including bonuses. Effective June 1, 2023, they all will receive a further 4.4 percent increase that could be extended to 5.5 percent based on the rate of inflation next year. They also agreed if inflation is above those levels to commence further negotiations for the second year of the contract which expires May 31, 2024.

ZDS issued a brief statement at the conclusion of the negotiations saying it was pleased that the terms had been recommended for acceptance by the Federal Tariff Commission. They however noted that the terms also placed an increased burden on the seaport operators and would not only impact performance but also the competitiveness of the industry.

Compensation addressing the retail inflation rate had been one of the major sticking points during the negotiations much as it has also emerged as a key point in the negotiations in the UK. Workers at the UK’s Felixstowe struck this week over similar concerns while the workers at Liverpool have also authorized a strike focusing on compensation that matches the rate of inflation.

Source: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/german-ports-and-workers-agree-to-terms-to-end-three-months-of-strikes

Consultancy Rystad Energy expects a drop-off ahead for Russian oil production and exports as the cutoff date for the planned EU oil embargo approaches. At the end of this year, the European Union will not allow further imports of Russian crude, depriving western Russia of access to its primary export market.

Over the span of the summer, Russia’s oil sector has been buoyed by high domestic demand, even as exports to Europe have fallen. Russian tourists are staying nearer to home due to the withdrawal of foreign airlines, and they are driving to their vacation destinations – thereby consuming more gasoline and creating demand for higher refining runs. This has helped offset the drop in demand from traditional European customers.

However, there are signs that the picture may not be so pleasant for Russia’s energy sector going forward. Rystad notes that crude exports shrank in June and July – including exports to buyers in Asia, who have been absorbing oil that would ordinarily be sold into European markets. The reason for Asian buyers’ declining interest is not known, but Rystad suggests that it could be that Russia has reduced the discount against Brent it is offering to its customers. These sales are private and undisclosed, but the pricing may have shifted from the previously-reported $30 per barrel discount to a more modest $15.

Whatever the cause, declining interest from Asia and the cutoff in Europe could reduce Russian crude exports by about 550,000 barrels a day by the end of December.

“Russia’s upstream sector has rebounded but this resilience is short term. Domestic consumption has helped fill the gap during the peak demand season, but overseas demand for Russian blends has dipped spelling trouble further ahead. The upcoming EU embargo remains an unknown factor, when and where it will impact is not yet clear, but it will hasten the decline expected this autumn,” said Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, in a new researech note.

An impending economic downturn will likely add to the impact domestically. Russia’s own central bank predicts a severe economic contraction of about 10 percent in the fourth quarter. The resulting reduction in demand for energy will weigh on domestic refining runs, taking another 700,000 bpd bite out of domestic oil consumption, according to Rystad.

“Russia will have to cope with a national economic crisis as well as source new markets for its oil and oil products when the EU embargo comes into force. After the summer ramp-up, crude production is expected to fall again by 1.1 million bpd, but further recovery will be more challenging and will take more time,” predicted Rystad.

A consortium led by Japanese gas company Inpex has won an assessment permit for a subsea carbon capture and storage site for its Ichthys LNG plant in Australia.

Inpex, together with Woodside and TotalEnergies, has secured a permit to look for suitable CCS sites in a promising area in the Bonaparte Basin, a shallow-water region just off the coast of Darwin, Australia. The liquefaction plant is located just outside of Darwin, and it would be a “natural user” of a CCS facility in the area, Inpex said in a statement. It would help Inpex, Woodside and TotalEnergies reduce carbon emissions from production and advance a shared goal of a net-zero carbon society by 2050.

Courtesy TotalEnergies

The project could also be a step towards a much larger, global-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage project planned by the Northern Territory’s government. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is currently leading the development of a business study for a carbon capture hub in the Northern Territory, working with Inpex and other stakeholders. If built, it could be a southern-hemisphere answer to Norway’s Northern Lights CCS project, and some of the captured carbon could be combined with hydrogen to make electrofuels.

TotalEnergies is also a partner in Northern Lights, and it has broader ambitions in CCS.

“TotalEnergies aims to develop more than 10 Mt/year of carbon storage capacity by 2030, including storage for its facilities as well as storage services for its customers,” said Julien Pouget, SVP TotalEnergies Asia-Pacific E&P & Renewables. “As a partner in both the Ichthys LNG and Bonaparte CCS Assessment joint ventures, TotalEnergies is well positioned to contribute to low carbon LNG production in Australia.”

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Young maritime leaders determined to see the industry improve its approach to human sustainability

Addressing overall human sustainability – across topics

A strong focus on improving human wellbeing at sea – and securing human rights

Calling out the industry to improve on Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

Enhancing human safety at sea

Who will take charge for securing the necessary skills and competences of the future?

Advancing a people-centered future through collaborative effort

Shipping Container Suppliers Abandon $987 Million Deal After US Probe

Removal of the High-Risk Area (HRA) in the Indian Ocean from 1 January 2023

Ukraine Black Sea Corridor Revised to Make Passages Easier and Shorter

Russian tanker collided with boat in Dardanelles

Biofuel Competition in Singapore as TotalEnergies Fuels COSCO Boxship

Soviet History Offers Clues to China’s Naval Strategy in Indian Ocean

German Ports and Workers Agree to Terms to End Three Months of Strikes

Rystad: Russian Oil Exports Will Fall Off by the End of the Year

Inpex Secures Permit to Study Subsea Carbon Storage Off Australia

New Phishing Campaign Targeting Shipping Companies Raises Alarm

IMO Maritime Safety Committee Opens 110th Session – Safety, Technology & Seafarer Protection in Focus

IMO’s ECDIS Cybersecurity Mandate: June 2025 Compliance Status & Enforcement

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