A global energy crisis was under way long before Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year. But the war has advanced regional energy problems and Europe, in particular, is in dire straits as it faces the approaching winter with low energy stocks and no chance of replenishing them before cold weather arrives in a few months time.

The pandemic masked energy security challenges as industrial activity declined and energy demand dipped. But now that most developed economies are recovering, the shortage of power is evident. Supplies of gas lie at the centre of the problem.

Apart from the US where exports are rising, there will be only limited new supplies of LNG in the near future. So, now that the war has taken vast quantities of gas out of the system, energy-starved countries are turning to the LNG spot market for gas at phenomenal prices. The few producers with spare export capacity can name their price.

Changing LNG trade patterns have not necessarily favoured the owners of these specialised ships. LNG from the US to Europe, for example, clocks up fewer tonne-miles than imports from the Middle East or Asia. Despite this, the LNG sector is firm and will remain so, thanks to higher volumes and demand for sea transport and fleet capacity constraints.

Ship supply constraints

The energy storm will worsen in the months ahead. There are four long-established LNG carrier construction yards, three in South Korea – Daewoo, Hyundai and Samsung – and Hudong in China. Two more Chinese builders have joined the short list recently – Dalian and Jiangnan – and another newcomer, Yangzijiang (YZJ) is expected to join the ranks.

All LNG construction facilities are full until well into the second half of the decade. Reflecting this, the most recent orders have been agreed at prices up by $60 million – latest contracts have closed at around $250m. Notably, these ships have relatively basic specifications. They are without some of the bells and whistles seen in past deliveries.

LR estimates that the annual production capacity of LNG builders is between 70-80 ships at the most. We also estimate that during the second half of this decade, liquefaction and trade demand volumes may require twice this number.

Some LNG producers who are ramping up exports have been caught out by the lack of construction capacity, hit by higher prices and longer delivery times. However, this has not deterred some companies from taking the plunge.
Where LNG liquefaction projects require delivery to terminal, key shipping players have not hesitated to work with new yards entering the LNG space. In this context some of the yard newcomers have already been booked for years ahead, limiting further any remnant yard capacity.

The upshot? The world will lack the LNG shipping capacity to meet transport demand by 2025, possibly before.

Lack of carbon efficiency

Meanwhile, much of the existing LNG fleet is unlikely to fare well when new IMO carbon efficiency regulations enter force in January. LR estimates that 400-plus existing LNG carriers in the 640 ship ocean-going fleet will fall in categories D and E of the carbon intensity indicator (CII).

This is largely because of inefficient steam-turbine and early diesel propulsion and a lack of boil-off management systems. Fundamental upgrades to lift them out of unacceptable D and E ratings into A, B or C categorise will be required.

Where such modifications prove uneconomic, owners may win a new lease of life for the ships as suitable candidates for conversions to floating storage units, with or without regasification capability. Floating technology is widely seen as the quickest way to raise import capacity and compensate for lost pipeline throughput.

But ship conversions will also take shipping capacity out of the market, generating more supply pressure. In carbon efficiency terms, these old ships may have poor ratings but they are still reliable vessels that the market could be in need of to balance demand.

Transition depends on security

There are fundamental issues to consider. We cannot have an energy transition without energy security and there is very little of that in many import-reliant countries right now. The planet’s energy security is under threat and carbon-free energy sources at scale are still many years away.

In the meantime, LNG is the cleanest hydrocarbon energy by far, and this applies to both the energy and the shipping sector. Ships using it as fuel make substantial emissions cuts. That said, methane slip remains a challenge but measuring its impact and applying the technologies being developed to tackle this problem will go a long way to improving LNG’s carbon footprint.

The world has abundant supplies of natural gas and plenty of existing export capacity with more under development. With pipelined gas in turmoil, LNG remains the reliable means to transport natural gas despite the cost of liquefaction and regasification. As things stand, and with the projected increase in LNG supply, before mid-decade, we will lack the capacity to ship LNG around the world in the volumes required.

A perfect storm is brewing.

Source: https://www.lr.org/en/insights/articles/lng-uptake-demands-energy-security/

A two-day conference on classification regulation and advanced technologies for naval ships and auxiliaries was organized in the national capital from August 4 to 5 with the aim of promoting indigenous warship building.

The conference was organised by the Directorate of Naval Architecture, Integrated Headquarters- Ministry of Defence (Navy) at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, the Ministry of Defence said.

The theme of the conference was future naval ships- technologically transformative, economically viable and environmentally sustainable, the Ministery said.

The conference was aimed to provide a platform for the Indian Navy to achieve synergy between classification societies, various branches of the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, Indian Shipyards, DRDO Labs, academia etc, in the field of research and development as well as quality assurance and survey/ certification of naval ships and auxiliaries.

Senior delegates/ subject experts from seven major International Classification Societies such as ABS, BV, Class-NK, DNV-GL, IRS, LR and RINA participated in the conference, wherein 16 papers were presented by the class societies, ranging from the classification process for Naval Ships, Military Class Notations, Maritime Cyber Security, Advanced Digital Technologies, Naval Ship Signatures, Rules for Autonomous Vessels, Bio-safety on Naval Ships, Technology Qualification, Hybrid Powering and Decarbonization of Naval Ships.

In addition, various other technical aspects relevant to the design, construction and maintenance of Naval and other Government Ships were discussed by the delegates during QA sessions and on the sidelines of the conference.

The conference was inaugurated by Vice Admiral Sandeep Naithani, Chief of Material, Indian Navy on August 4 and its various sessions were keenly participated by more than 120 delegates, including Senior Officers of Naval Headquarters, Naval Command, Field Units, Coast Guards Headquarters.

Delegates from six DPSU Shipyards, DRDO Scientists and academia were also present at the Conference, the release stated.

The closing session was presided over by VAdm Kiran Deshmukh, Controller of Warship Production and Acquisition, Indian Navy on August 5.

Source: https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/conference-on-classification-regulations-advanced-naval-tech-held-in-delhi-122080900470_1.html

The Emory S. Land-class submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS 40) hosted several engagements from the 13th Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) and U.S. Navy Submarine Staff Talks to ship tours while moored pierside at Sepanggar Naval Base in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.

Staff talks also included discussions of Frank Cable’s expeditionary repair, rearm, and re-provision capabilities.

“It was an honor to host the 13th Royal Malaysian Navy and U.S. Navy Submarine Staff Talks onboard our ship,” said Capt. Frye, Frank Cable’s commanding officer. “We enjoyed the opportunity to present our submarine tender’s expeditionary capabilities and reinforce our strong relationship with the Royal Malaysian Navy.”

Frank Cable’s triad, along with several officers, had the opportunity to tour the Malaysian Submarine Command Headquarters to learn more about the Royal Malaysian Navy’s submarine capabilities, July 15, 2022.

“The Royal Malaysian Navy displayed a wide range of impressive capabilities of the RMN Submarine Force,” said Ens. Sean Smith, Frank Cable’s weapons handling officer, of the tour of RMN submarine command headquarters.

“Joint engagements between the Royal Malaysian Navy and U.S. Navy continue to strengthen our partnership. I am honored to have been a part of these joint engagements and hope they lead to future allied operations.”

While in port, Frank Cable Sailors also had the opportunity to participate in a friendly volleyball match with RMN sailors.

“It was a chance to build on our relationship with the Malaysian Navy,” said Chief Religious Program Specialist Christopher Renaud, from Clearfield, Pennsylvania, assigned to the Frank Cable.

“And these types of events are what I will remember when I look back at my time underway and in foreign ports. I was surprised with how much they knew about the game. It was obvious that they had been playing together for a while, and it translated with them taking the two out of three from us.”

Frank Cable hosted several tours for RMN sailors with Frank Cable Sailors presenting the ship’s medical, repair, supply and weapon capabilities, demonstrating the ship’s operational readiness at all times.

Lastly, the triad from the Royal Australian Navy Collins-class submarine HMAS Collins, currently docked at Sepanggar Naval Base, visited the Frank Cable for lunch.

Frank Cable, forward-deployed to the island of Guam, repairs, rearms, and re-provisions submarines and surface vessels in the Indo-Pacific region. Frank Cable is currently on patrol conducting expeditionary maintenance and logistics in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Source: https://maritimefairtrade.org/u-s-submarine-tender-visits-malaysia/

In the Indo-Pacific region, Chinese aggression demonstrates an effort by Beijing to deconstruct core elements of the international rules-based order and assert greater control over the waterways that connect it with its neighbors, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs said.

In June, for instance, a Chinese fighter aircraft cut across the nose of an Australian aircraft which was conducting legal operations over the South China Sea. The Chinese aircraft released chaff that was sucked into the engine of the Australian aircraft, said Ely Ratner, who spoke at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Chaff” consists of fragments of aluminum, or another material, released from an aircraft as a radar countermeasure.

That incident, Ratner said, came shortly after another series of incidents where Chinese aircraft unsafely intercepted Canadian aircraft who were also conducting legal activities on behalf of the U.N. Security Council over the East China Sea.

Another incident, he said, involved a Chinese naval vessel endangering another Australian aircraft by aiming a laser at it.

“These are not isolated incidents,” Ratner said. “Over the last five years, the number of unsafe PLA [People’s Liberation Army] intercepts, including U.S. allies and partners operating lawfully in international airspace in the South China Sea has increased dramatically with dozens of dangerous events in the first half of this year alone. In my view, this aggressive and irresponsible behavior represents one of the most significant threats to peace and stability in the region today, including in the South China Sea.”

Ratner said if the Chinese military continues that unsafe behavior, in short time, it might cause a major incident or accident in the region. Chinese actions, he said, are part of an effort by Beijing to systematically test the limits of U.S. and partner resolve and to advance a new status quo in the South China Sea that disregards existing commitments to a respect for sovereignty, peaceful resolution of disputes and adherence to international law.

“What this demands of us is that we demonstrate the will and capability to properly deter PRC aggression,” he said.

The Defense Department has a strategy, Ratner said, which is aimed at ensuring the U.S., its partners and allies can continue to enjoy a free and open Indo-Pacific region where both international law and national sovereignty are respected.

The Strategy

• Building asymmetric advantages for U.S. partners
• Building a combat-credible forward presence in the Indo-Pacific
• Enabling the most capable of U.S. partners in the region

~Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs

“Without question, bolstering our partners’ self-defense capabilities in the South China Sea, and across the region, is a task of foremost importance for the Defense Department,” Ratner said. “DOD is taking an increasingly proactive approach in looking at new options to support these efforts.”

Underlying that approach, he said, is an understanding that deterrence doesn’t mean matching competitors’ capabilities directly.

“We’ve seen reminders in Ukraine that smaller nations can outmaneuver larger aggressors through smart investments in self-defense technologies, anti-aircraft weapons and other anti-access/denial capabilities,” he said.

Information can also be as powerful a tool as hardware, he said. And to that end the Defense Department is providing better support to partner intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities and rethinking how it manages and shares information.

“We’re doubling down on our efforts to build a common operating picture with our partners that will allow them to better detect and counter illicit activities in their territorial waters,” he said. “Our new Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness … which we launched at the Quad Leaders Summit in May, is just one way that we’re doing so.”

The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, he said, will allow the U.S. to share near-real-time satellite data with partners.

Building a more combat-credible forward presence in the Indo-Pacific, Ratner said, means a focus on day-to-day campaigning, and the harnessing of new capabilities, operational concepts, and combined warfighting development with allies to complicate competitor military preparations.

“We’re building a more dynamic presence in the region,” he said. “In practice, this means we’re operating forward and more flexibly, including through a regular tempo of rotational activities.”

As examples, he said, last fall, two U.S. carrier strike groups were joined by a Japanese helicopter destroyer and a U.K. carrier strike group to conduct multilateral, multicarrier operations in the Philippine Sea.

“When the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group rotated through the Indian Ocean and ultimately the South China Sea last spring, we conducted multidomain operations with the Indian navy and air force that integrated air, anti-submarine and command and control elements,” he said.

Across the Indo-Pacific, Ratner said, the U.S. military has been increasing the complexity, jointness, duration and scale of combined exercises with allies.

“As we continue to shore up our position in the region, we will not relent in our commitment to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows to ensure that all nations are able to exercise this right,” he said.

Another of the department’s effort to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region, Ratner said, is better enabling the U.S.’s more capable partners and allies in the region.

“The United States’ ability to pursue common security and economic goals with like-minded nations is the cornerstone of our success and at the root of our strategy,” he said. “For the U.S. military specifically, our defense relationships and our ability to bind them more tightly together into more deeply interoperable coalitions can make clear the costs of aggression.”

U.S. alliances with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand, for instance, remain at the center DOD’s approach here, he said.

During a recent trip to Thailand, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and his counterparts there discussed opportunities to expand bilateral training and exercises, including the establishment of a working group on reciprocal access, Ratner said.

The U.S. is also working with the Philippines to develop new bilateral defense guidelines to clarify respective roles, missions and capabilities within the framework of the U.S. and Philippines’ alliance, Ratner said. Already, he said, the U.S. and the Philippines participate together in more than 300 exercises and military to military activities annually.

“We do not seek confrontation or conflict,” Ratner said. “We say that publicly, we say that privately. Our primary interest is in upholding the order that has for decades sustained the region’s peace. And while we will always stand ready to prevail in conflict, it is the primary responsibility of the Department of Defense to prevent it and deterrence is the cornerstone of our strategy.”

Source: https://maritimefairtrade.org/indo-pacific-u-s-builds-asymmetric-advantage-to-counter-chinese-aggression/

China will continue to conduct military drills in various areas along its coast after large-scale exercises in the Taiwan Strait, closing part of ​the Bohai Gulf in the northwestern part of the Yellow Sea for one month, the China Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) said on Monday.

“From 00:00 on August 8 [16:00 GMT, August 7] to 24:00 on September 8 [16:00 GMT, September 7], military missions will be carried out in part of the Bohai Sea; entry [to the area] is prohibited,” the MSA office in Dalian in the northeastern province of Liaoning said in a statement.

Naval and air drills near Taiwan will continue as well on Monday and focus on “practicing joint anti-submarine and maritime amphibious operations,” the Chinese army’s Eastern Theater Command said on WeChat.

On Saturday, the MSA office of the Lianyungang city district in the province of Jiangsu said that the  Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct military exercises with live fire in the southern part of the Yellow Sea from August 6-15.

The PLA organized large-scale military drills deploying missiles, aircraft, and warships in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week. The exercises started on August 4 in six water areas around the island and were supposed to end on August 7.

Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) will continue drills in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement.

“On August 8, the Eastern Theater Command will continue to conduct joint exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan,” the statement said.

Anti-submarine drills and offensive ops at sea will be rehearsed. The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command has extended the exercises around Taiwan for the second day consecutively.

Source: https://eurasiantimes.com/plans-deadly-plan-china-to-continue-naval-drills-in-yellow-se/

A group of Japanese entities has announced the creation of the ‘Maritime and Ocean Digital Engineering’ (MODE) cooperation programme at the University of Tokyo.

The entities include NYK Group company MTI, Japan Marine United Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Group company Mitsubishi Shipbuilding, Furuno Electric, Japan Radio, BEMAC, ClassNK and NAPA.

With a focus on research and education, the programme will establish a network between research institutes across the world and the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Frontier Sciences and Graduate School of Engineering.

The programme will be launched on 1 October and continue for five years, up to 30 September 2027. It intends to build a simulation platform to promote and improve digital engineering technology and skills for the maritime sector.

Under the cooperation programme, the entities will use model-based development (MBD) and model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to develop and implement new technologies for global decarbonisation.

Both models are expected to help with the challenges faced by Japan’s maritime industry, such as maintaining shipping services, supporting seafarers and enhancing safety by incorporating autonomous ships and maintaining productivity amid increasing complexity in the ship design and manufacturing processes.

By studying the functions of products and components as computer models, MBD and MBSE will focus on problems and assess their behaviours through simulations.

The models will also be used by a range of stakeholders, including shippers and operators, to create a collaborative development process.

MHI stated that ‘the programme is also anticipated to expand into maritime fields such as offshore wind power generation and subsea resource development’.

Source: https://www.porttechnology.org/news/lekki-port-receives-second-ship-with-handling-equipment/