The International Council on Clean Transport’s (ICCT) Marine Program Lead, Bryan Comer, called the IMO to pick a ‘zero date’ – the year by which shipping’s life cycle carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions are zero.
Once the IMO has set a zero date, Mr. Comer notes that the industry needs interim targets. As he explains, the industry must set absolute emissions reduction goals for years between now and the zero date.
Regarding the zero date, Mr. Comer’s analysis shows it should be not later than 2050. That is based on updated carbon budgets from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.
What policymakers need to understand is that it’s the cumulative emissions between now and the zero year that we’re concerned with, because that’s how the carbon budgets are conceived
However, meeting these interim reductions is critically important, as if shipping exactly follows the zero-by-2050 trajectory, cumulative emissions between now and 2050 would total only 14 Gt, lower than the 17 Gt well below 2 °C budget.
While there’s some nuance, if international shipping is to do its part to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals, member states should agree to reduce absolute emissions by 33% or 50% by 2030 and 67% or 100% in 2040 relative to 2008. No matter what, the IMO’s revised GHG strategy should aim for zero emissions by no later than 2050
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