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(Bloomberg Opinion) – The shipping industry is getting serious about cutting sulfur dioxide emissions. People who live along busy shipping lanes will see health benefits from reduced particulate emissions and a reduction in acid rain when new regulations came into force on Jan. 1. But the sulfur particles help offset some of the warming caused by powering the ships, so the rules may also increase the likelihood that rising sea levels caused by global warming leave those same populations without a home.

The new regulations from the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency responsible for ensuring safe and efficient shipping on clean oceans, allow for two ways of tackling the problem. Either ships must burn fuel with a sulfur content of no more than 0.5%, down from the 3.5% that is currently permitted outside of designated special emission-control areas. Or they must install scrubbers to remove sulfur from their exhaust.

The change targets the public-health impact of shipping, which is estimated to contribute 13% of total sulfur oxide emissions annually. It will slash the amount of sulfur dioxide from ships by 75%. Doing so will dramatically reduce premature deaths resulting from sulfate emissions from ships, according to a paper published in Nature Communications in 2018 by a team of researchers from U.S. institutions and the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Most of the health benefits will be felt by communities in coastal regions of densely populated countries with busy ports or those on major sea-trade routes, especially in India and China. People living near coastlines in the U.S. or Europe won’t see a difference since ships operating in those areas already face far stricter limits that restrict them to burning fuel with a maximum sulfur level of 0.1%.

But these health benefits may come at a cost of actually worsening shipping’s climate impact. That’s because the sulfates from ships’ exhaust emissions contribute a cooling effect that will be lost with their removal.

Sulfur aerosols from ship exhaust reflect energy back into space. But they also help make clouds brighter, so they reflect more sunlight away from the Earth as well. Mikhail Sofiev, one of the authors of the Nature Communications paper, explained it like this:

Clouds with many small droplets are “whiter” — more reflective — than the clouds with few large droplets. Anthropogenic particles are small and numerous. They attract water and prompt formation of many small cloud droplets – and we get white-top cloud. Fewer sulfate particles reaching the cloud tops will reduce their albedo [ability to reflect] because the cloud droplets will become less numerous, bigger and therefore less reflective.

Most of the cooling effect from ship exhaust comes from this secondary impact on clouds, accounting for about 92% of the total. The new regulations will reduce that cooling impact from the world’s shipping fleet by 81%, according to the study. The net effect of the IMO 2020 rule on the climate impact is to increase the warming effect of all human activities by 3.8%.

Removing the sulfur from ship emissions exposes the climate effects of shipping. As James Corbett, another of the report’s authors, points out, “sulfate aerosols mask climate forcing, they don’t change it.”

The sulfur puzzle is just one piece of IMO’s efforts to clean up an industry that’s crucial to keeping global trade flowing, with more than 80% of global trade carried by sea. The Third IMO GHG Study, published in 2014, estimated that in 2012 international shipping accounted for about 2.2% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, and that such emissions could grow by between 50% and 250% by 2050.

In 2018, the London-based group adopted a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. The goal is to cut the carbon intensity of international shipping “by at least 40% by 2030, pursuing efforts towards 70% by 2050, compared to 2008,” according to the document. It also aims to bring about a peak in total greenhouse gas emissions “as soon as possible” and reduce them by at least 50% by 2050 compared with 2008 levels. The overall emissions target is lower than the carbon intensity goal because the volume of shipping is forecast to increase over the next 30 years.

One proposal to help achieve all of this is to lower fuel consumption by introducing speed limits. Others include technical approaches such as mandatory power limits.

Where sulfur dioxide emissions are concerned, some of the negative climate impact may be offset by a parallel reduction in organic carbon and black carbon particles from ship exhaust, which have strongly warming properties. Low-sulfur fuels contain fewer black carbon particles and scrubbers remove them alongside the sulfur. They also have another important component: They are extremely expensive.

The higher cost of IMO 2020-compliant ship fuel and the fact there is no single worldwide specification for compliant fuel may in and of itself increase the incentive for ship operators and charterers to cut consumption, Corbett argues, thereby reducing CO2 emissions.

Until an industry-wide greenhouse gas strategy is adopted and implemented that may be the best hope we have.

Source: https://www.fleetowner.com/running-green/emissions/article/21119748/opinion-fighting-shipping-pollution-is-bad-for-the-planet


Yesterday MPA (Maritime and Port Authority) published a document for crew change stance easing, under the latest enhancement MPA has made to its crew change policy, for signing-on crew, shipping companies are requested to inform MPA of crew change plans 14 days in advance and confirm that the crew has been in quarantine for at least 14 days prior to entering Singapore with a negative Covid-19 test result. The crew also need a fit-to-travel medical certificate, issued by a doctor not more than 24 hours prior to departing the crew’s home country. For signing-off crew, seafarers will be required to have a fit-to-travel medical certificate and prove he/she has not gone ashore for the last 14 days and remains well. In order to minimize the risk, all the crew need to be transferred directly between the vessel and the point of arrival/departure. Additionally, MPA is also in the process of exploring a so-called halfway house concept, mostly likely offshore, to accommodate sign-on crew in Singapore while waiting for their vessels to arrive. Japanese owners have been looking at a similar concept, in a similar way. before crews working beyond their stipulated contracts must be repatriated, meaning governments have until June 15 to resolve the crew change issues that has seen around 150,000 seafarers waiting beyond their contracts to get home due to strict travel restrictions.

 

As earlier on 9th May IMO publishes framework of protocols for safe crew changes. The document describes protocols on how crews can join a ship, starting at their residence, and how a crew member can disembark and reach his home – often in a different countries. The document described how crews can join a ship, starting at their residence, and how a crew member can disembark and reach his home – often in a different country. The protocols for crew change and repatriation were drawn up by ICS, IAPH, BIMCO, IFSMA, INTERTANKO, P&I Clubs, CLIA, INTERCARGO, INTERMANAGER, IPTA, IMCA, INTERFERRY, FONASBA, ITF, and WSC. They also take account of input from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The IMO urges governments and national authorities to designate all professional seafarers and marine personnel as “key workers” and grant them with the necessary exemptions from the local rules that restrict movement, to allow them to join or leave the ships, among other things. The 61-page document is aimed at all the stakeholders in the process, including ship-owners, shipping companies, maritime administrations, customs, health authorities, airport authorities and several other organizations.

 

For the moment more than 5,000 people have signed the global petition Seafarers Matter aiming to draw the attention of the general public to the problems of the hundreds of thousands of seafarers who cannot leave or join ships due to the coronavirus pandemic as reported by Asia Shipping Media on 20 May 2020. The initiative started five days ago, spearheaded by the International Maritime Organization’s goodwill maritime ambassador for Bulgaria, Captain Andriyan Evtimov. The aim is to have the document signed online by at least the same number of people as that of the blocked crew – 150,000 and rising – and then send it to IMO member state governments with an appeal for immediate and urgent measures to facilitate the movement of seafaring personnel. Global trade unions have given governments and the shipping industry. To assist governments to put in place coordinated procedures to facilitate the safe movement of seafarers, the IMO has this month issued a 12-step plan to 174 member states, providing them with a roadmap to free seafarers from their Covid-19 lockdown and allow appropriate exemptions for them to join or leave ships. The 55-page roadmap has been advanced by a broad coalition of seafarer unions, and international shipping industry associations, with input from airline industry representatives, international organizations, and the insurance sector, to provide a comprehensive blueprint of how governments can facilitate crew changeovers and resolve safety concerns throughout the entire process.

Source: https://navis-odessa.com/news/the-ice-is-broken-singapore-eases-crew-change-rules-imo-comes-within-an-inch-of-protocols-for-crew-shifts-and-seafarer-s-global-petition-is-on-steam


The shipping industry, skating on razor-thin margins, is drawing solace from cheaper bunker fuel prices caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

But the jury is still out on whether this will offset weaker shipping demand, which has infected key routes globally after decimating those in Asia.

As the coronavirus pandemic takes the chair out from under global oil demand, marine fuel price surges from the IMO 2020 rules are a distant memory for the maritime industry – even though they only took effect from January 1. The crisis has dragged marine fuel prices below levels seen even before IMO 2020 became a driving force.

This year a large proportion of the marine industry shifted to more expensive, lower-sulfur fuel to comply with IMO 2020 rules, which cut the sulfur cap to 0.5% from 3.5%.

The marine fuel of choice for many shipowners, was very low sulfur fuel oil (0.5% sulfur). Its price averaged $201/mt in April on a delivered basis at Rotterdam, half what it was before IMO 2020, despite the main fuel one year ago containing more sulfur.

The prevalent marine fuel last year, high sulfur fuel oil (3.5% sulfur), averaged $421/mt in April 2019 at Rotterdam, S&P Global Platts data shows.

Bunker fuels and covid-19

Spot prices of marine fuel are now the lowest in four years. Prices of VLSFO bunker fuel delivered-Rotterdam hit a record low of $154/mt on April 28, while the pre-IMO 2020 HSFO price was last below this in April 2016.

The current coronavirus-driven dynamics of the marine fuel market are a far cry from the fears of price spikes post IMO 2020 when the sector rushed to stockpile compliant fuels, and this has caught some companies out.

Prior to IMO 2020, chartering companies were advised to take ships from owners that had secured bunker contracts to mitigate IMO 2020-induced price volatility on the spot market, which starkly contrasts with conditions now.

Crude oil tanker giant, Euronav, purchased the equivalent of 420,000 mt of compliant fuel oil and marine gasoil, paying an average of $447/mt for 0.5% sulfur fuel oil in September, the company said.

The VLSFO was purchased “in anticipation of IMO 2020 price volatility” and the fuel that has not been consumed yet “will lead to a write-down as the current market value is significantly below the acquisition cost,” Euronav said in its 2019 results in late March.

Mixed blessing

While usually the true winners of lower marine fuel prices are the downstream end users – the shipowners and charterers – the reduction in fuel costs is providing little solace in an otherwise gloomy macro-economic picture.

“From a shipowner’s or charterer’s perspective, the lower bunker prices provide a glimmer of hope in bleak times,” Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, said.

“The lower bunker fuel prices are partly buoying earnings amidst challenging markets conditions,” he noted, adding that VLSFO prices in April were a “massive cost saving” from prices in January.

The precipitous drop in bunker prices has led to increased savings for shipowners. Platts data shows the average drop in VLSFO prices of $325/mt between January and April means that shipowners were set to save $16,266 a day during April, assuming a vessel consumes 50 mt/day of fuel.

Shipowner fuel cost savings

Low bunker prices have also altered some shipping routes, Sand said. “With the lower cost of sailing, some companies have started to sail around the Cape of Good Hope on the Asia-Europe backhaul instead of paying steep toll dues to transit the Suez Canal.”

However, S&P Global Ratings said lower bunker prices would only provide moderate relief. “We forecast that global [freight] trade volumes will plunge by up to 15% in 2020 compared with 2019, and that this will be only partly offset by blank sailings – a measure implemented by container liners to reduce running capacity — and a lower bunker price.”

Looking further ahead, bunker fuel demand is expected to fall 5% this year, the International Energy Association (IEA) said in its most recent report. The IEA previously attributed the fall in demand from some shipping segments, notably container ships, to reduced trade to and from Asia.

Danish shipping giant, Maersk, reiterated the view in its first quarter earnings report saying: “we expect container liners’ bunker bills to be much lower than in 2019, also because of reduced transported volumes.”

Weakened demand for the bunker fuels, and in turn, cheaper fuel prices mirrors that of reduced shipping volumes in the maritime sector, acting as a double-edged sword for shipowners.

However, the significance of shipping to the world economy has been highlighted during the pandemic so far, as marine fuel has seen relative support compared to other transport fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel, due to freight exemptions to widespread lockdowns.

As 90% of global trade is seaborne, “bunker fuel’s immune system [is] stronger than other fuels,” the IEA said.

Overall, the maritime industry has been kept on its toes so far this year. As the industry sails through choppy waters, only time will tell what is in store, but signs of a revival in demand will certainly be the main focus in the near term.

Source: https://blogs.platts.com/2020/05/21/bunker-fuel-price-shipowners-global-trade/


The most awaited regulation of the decade for the maritime industry has been implemented from 1st January 2020. The implementation of 0.5% sulfur cap for marine fuel, popularly known as IMO 2020 will need strict compliance from the crew and shipowners, making it one of the most stringent regulations under MARPOL in the recent times.

Whenever any new regulations are implemented in the maritime industry, the first authorities to ensure ships are complying with them are the port state authorities.

Every port state authority will come onboard ships to check if the shipowners and the crew have done their part in making the new regulation effectively implemented onboard. Failing to do so will ask for hefty fines and even detention.

The IMO 2020 Regulation requires vessels to ensure ships machinery burns the fuel whose exhaust sulphur component by wt percentage is not more than 0.5%.

Needless to say, is extremely critical for the ships’ crews to be familiar with the new regulations, how it can be effectively implemented and all the associated documentation with it so that when a PSC inspector is onboard for checking the compliance, the ship can easily sail to the next port without any remarks or non-compliance.

How ship can prepare for IMO 2020 inspection by PSC?

The most important thing for the ship crew is to understand the requirements clearly. The fuel received onboard the ship will be considered as one of the most important evidence for any inspection.

Hence, with respect to the fuel oil, the crew must:

1. Ensure Bunker delivery note and Fuel Sample is kept onboard

As per the requirement, the BDN to be kept on board ship for three years from the date of issue. The BDN should be accompanied by a Representative Sample of the fuel delivered – the MARPOL Sample.

2. Correct Soundings Record:

Apart from the BDN, the PSC will check the soundings of the tanks where the low sulphur fuel is kept or where the HSFO is kept for ships with exhaust gas scrubber.

Any discrepancies in the value of the sounding may lead to suspicion and further investigation.

taking tank sounding

Credits: US Navy/Wikipedia.org

Ensure the officer in charge of sounding keeps all the records in place and the volume correction is done appropriately as per the temperature of the oil.

The sounding log books need to updated regularly and signed by the chief engineer and the officer taking the soundings.

Related Read: Fuel Oil Consumption Calculations For Ships: What Seafarers Should Know

3. Fuel Transfer Record:

The ship must keep ready the fuel oil transfer plan for LSFO and HSFO fuel. Along with that, the PSC may ask for a fuel oil line diagram for reference. The tanks dedicated to LSFO must clearly be shown in the line diagram.

Tank cleaning details and dates to store the LSFO must be present in onboard records, including Oil Record Book.

The bunker details with LSFO must be recorded in the Oil Record book and signed by both Master and Chief engineer.

All records of any internal transfer, retention, disposal etc related to fuel oil will be cross-checked by the port stat inspector, hence these records need to be properly maintained.

4. Fuel Transfer plan and Piping Diagram

The plan and piping diagrams are important too as the PSC inspector will ask them to study them to understand whether the fuel change-over has been done properly, by cross-referring the data in the BDN, LSFO record book and ORB.

The location of the tank, the number of tanks used, pipelines in play etc. will be studied from the piping diagram. Any modification done for the storage and transfer of LSFO must be indicated and have survey approval from relevant authorities.

Ships visiting Emission Control Areas must have a Fuel oil change over plan to use fuel with 0.1% sulphur content. The plan must be readily available in the engine room and ship staff must know the detailed procedure as PSC inspector may ask them the procedure and local regulations.

If the PSC has doubts about the fuel and the lab results are not available, they will take the sample from service and settling tank for their own oil analysis.

Related Read: Fuel Oil Change Over Procedure for Ship’s Main and Auxiliary Engines

5. IAPP Certificate:

As per the MARPOL Annex VI requirement, all 400GT and above ships are bound to carry a valid International Air Pollution Prevention Certificate and supplement as a confirmation that the ship is fulfilling the requirements of this Annex.

The Supplement of the IAPP certificate provides the details of Sulphur Oxides and Particular Matter and how the control of emissions from the ship is achieved. It also contains the sulphur content limit values for fuel for ships plying within the ECA.

Any additional equipment fitted to reduce the sulphur content within the required limit such as scrubber tower etc. are also specified in the supplement of the certificate. Thus Master must ensure the IAPPC and Supplement are valid and updated to indicate the compliance arrangements on board which will be checked by the PSC.

6. Scrubber System:

Most of the ships have adopted exhaust gas scrubber system to comply with the upcoming sulphur emission rule because of the ease of using heavy fuel oil.

The PSC will be having a keen eye for the EGB and following things to be taken care of:

  • The Data recorder must be operational and records the time, position, pressure, flowrate etc. of the wash water. The PSC will check all these details to establish the correct operation of the EGB
  • The data recording device should be robust, tamper-proof, read-only and able to record at a rate not less than 0.0035 Hz
    The data should be retained on board ship for 18 months
  • The ship officer must take out the recent data in readable format for Port state inspector in case he/she demands it
  • PSC inspector may ask and check the approved documentation relating to any installed exhaust gas cleaning systems
  • At each renewal survey, nitrate discharge data is to be available in respect of sample overboard discharge is drawn from each EGC system within the previous three months before the survey.
  • The nitrate discharge data and analysis certificate is to be retained on board the ship as part of the EGC Record Book and made available for PSC if requested

Closed Loop Scrubber System

Different port states have different regulations for the requirement of the open and closed-loop system. The ship officer must know if the port allows open scrubber or closed scrubber system to be operational in its territory and prohibit the discharge of effluent.

Related Read: 14 Technologies to Make the Ultimate Green Ship

The Port state inspector may demand to check the state of the wash water discharge pipe if it contains oil or not.

7. Record of Voyage:

The voyage records must be kept onboard as PSC inspector may demand to see the previous passages of the ship to know the time and coordinates for the entry in the port state or ECAs and if the ship has changed over to the compliant fuel in right time by cross-checking the data with ORB and other record books.

8. Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report:

If a ship is unable to acquire compliant fuel due to non-availability or any other reason, the master has to notify the flag state and other relevant authorities including the nearest or next port state.

This notification is called as FONAR or Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report.

This FONAR application and replies of the flag state respectively should be available for the PSC inspection. FONAR should be used only in case of extreme emergency and when all efforts fail to acquire a compliant fuel.

The PSC inspector will go through the report, correspondence and other details to accept the FONAR. However, a repeated FONAR may lead to negative reviews against the ship and the owner.

Source:
https://www.marineinsight.com/guidelines/how-ships-can-prepare-for-psc-inspection-for-imo-2020/


The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has sent a recommended framework of protocols to ensure safe ship crew changes and travel during the Covid-19 pandemic to all IMO member states, the UN and other stakeholders.

The protocols outline how crews can join a ship, starting at their residence, and how a crew member can disembark and reach his home – often in a different country.

The framework of protocols was proposed by a broad cross section of global industry associations which has consultative status with IMO, including BIMCO. It includes input from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The IMO urges governments and national authorities to designate all professional seafarers and marine personnel as “key workers” and grant them with the necessary exemptions from the local rules that restrict movement, to allow them to join or leave the ships, among other things.

The 61-page document is aimed at all the stakeholders in the process, including shipowners, shipping companies, maritime administrations, customs, health authorities, airport authorities and several other organizations.

“It is an important step that we provide these protocols, to demonstrate that transferring crews can be done safely. It is however down to all the nation states to implement the required measures during a crisis that is still escalating in many locations. It will therefore require continued consultation with governments, to avoid a potential breakdown in supply-chains which will harm everyone,” said Lars Robert Pedersen, BIMCO Deputy Secretary General.

The lack of access to commercial flights is an additional challenge that needs to be solved.

Source:
https://www.motorship.com/news101/regulation-and-classification/imo-backs-protocols-to-facilitate-crew-changes


As more industries acknowledge the role of climate change in economic growth and labour productivity, entire segments of the economy are taking steps to limit their environmental impact. This year, maritime shipping is facing new environmental regulations from the International Maritime Organization. Under the new regulations, known as the sulphur cap, all ships sailing the world’s oceans have to immediately reduce the amount of sulphur they release into the atmosphere. This regulation could potentially lead to huge costs for cargo shipowners and operators, as well as a rise in freight fees, globally.

Old ships, new rules

According to industry estimates provided by Shipping and Freight Resource, more than 90 percent of the global vessel fleet will have to have to rely on sulphur cap-compliant fuels after 1 January 2020, while the remaining lines will choose to invest in different technologies and operational investments such as scrubbers.

Shipowners anticipate that the sulphur cap may result in an increase in shipping fees globally, says Michael Borisov, Chief Investment Officer at Leon MFO Investments. This is due in part to the nature of the market for ships. Most cargo tankers and bulkers have a lifespan of 20-30 years.

“Many companies are relying on a scenario that involves other companies writing off old ships (due to the changes in regulation). Therefore, there will be a shortage of supply in the transportation market, and this will spur demand and raise freight fees,” Borisov says.

Annually, no more than 5 percent of the world’s cargo ships are being replaced, Borisov says, so in practical terms, the new regulations mean that companies will have to make changes to their ships currently at sea.

“A number of shipping firms have old fleets that require retrofitting or commissioning new ships with engines that burn cleaner fuels,” Borisov says.

These existing vessels should either switch to more expensive sulphur cap-compliant fuels or install scrubbers, which clean sulphur from ships’ exhaust.

Scrubber: the word of the year

The IMO regulation effectively launched a technological revolution in scrubber systems. Since the beginning of the year, the word ‘scrubbers’ dominated international newsfeeds in the industry. According to available data, more than 3,000 vessels had been equipped with scrubbers by the time the sulphur cap entered into force. Euronav reportedpurchasing its first ships with scrubbers; DHT, a US-listed owner of very large crude carriers, says it has saved USD 14.6m by using scrubbers on almost half its fleet; and Seanergy Maritime announced that it has completed the installation of scrubbers on five capesize vessels, or 50 percent of its owned fleet, with USD 14m investments overall.

“The costs of installing scrubbers are fixed, while the costs of compliant fuels are unpredictable and depend on oil prices, refinery pricing and even geopolitics,” says Borisov, adding that for ships that will be replaced in the near-to-medium term, both scrubbers and compliant fuels may look like temporary solutions for shipowners.

Going beyond compliance

This increase in the use of scrubbers, or Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems (EGCS), as a cost-effective means to achieve compliance has led to a revival of the discussion around their reliability, however.

According to experts from Wärtsilä, one of the world’s leading suppliers of marine scrubber systems, the biggest concern with EGCS is corrosion of the system or the piping, which can result from poor design, construction, or installation. Wärtsilä has provided scrubbers for a variety of vessel types, from oil tankers to cruise ships to fishing vessels, and has made reliability a focus of its scrubber offerings. Material used in Wärtsilä scrubbers is subjected to extensive testing and research by third-party experts and in independent analyses.

“It is no accident that scrubber reliability is emerging or rather, re-emerging, as an issue now,” says Sigurd Jenssen, Director of Exhaust Gas Cleaning at Wärtsilä.

An unreliable scrubber system significantly compromises compliance with the sulphur cap.

“Safe return to port is always key, so you are not going to be penalised for sailing to the port you were going to if your scrubber stops working,” says Jenssen. “But whether you have to get it fixed straight away or can continue sailing until the spares are available and repairs arranged is up to the port state.”

Suppliers lacking substantial experience in the marine market may not be able to recognise the full consequences of their choices or the scale of corrosion that can occur. Beyond risking fines and detentions, a vessel that is non-compliant due to a faulty scrubber might also tarnish the reputation of its parent company and other vessels in the fleet. According to       the Marine and Port Authority of Singapore, previous non-compliance will be part of the risk profiling that will be used to determine which vessels are subject to inspection when they arrive at port.

“The risk and costs associated with non-compliance are extremely high. When we look at the competitive landscape for scrubbers, we see several companies that have no service network at all, many who are newcomers to the marine world and actually none that have a network comparable to ours,” says Jan Othman, Director of Exhaust Treatment at Wärtsilä.

Wärtsilä has more than 10 years of experience in designing scrubbers and has installed its solutions on a variety of vessel types, from oil tankers to cruise ships, from fishing vessels to cable layers. The company has tested its materials itself and conducted extensive research with third-party experts, as well as confirming its selections against independent analysis.

Wärtsilä is also incorporating the latest technological developments into its EGCS. The system’s automation and control system is being developed to enable even better cybersecurity and easier integration for big data functions. A new standard control system will be able to connect to Wärtsilä’s Data Collection Unit, an integrated data bridge that collates sensor readings from multiple sources on the ship. This data is then fed back to Wärtsilä to help both optimise and improve a vessel’s automation and control systems on both current and future journeys.

These developments provide yet another way to assist shipowners in reducing both fuel costs and emissions, making progress on the journey to a Smart Marine Ecosystem.

Source:
https://www.wartsila.com/twentyfour7/environment/silent-revolution-at-sea-imo-sulphur-cap-2020-regulations-set-to-change-maritime-shipping


The sulfur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the center stage in the shipping industry at outset of the new decade. Four months on, the spotlights have turned to the coronavirus and the OPEC+ oil price war.

The outlook for global economic growth remains bleak as the world is faced with the largest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Commodity prices have declined across the board and most recently, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reference oil future drew headlines as it crashed into negative territory at $-37.63 per barrel on 20 April 2020. The sliding oil prices have driven down bunker fuel prices, which hold mixed implications for the shipping industry.

“From a shipowner’s or charterer’s perspective, the lower bunker prices provide a glimmer of hope in bleak times. Perhaps less hopeful are the bunker suppliers, who must now supply bunker fuels at a fraction of the price seen four months ago,” says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting oil demand to collapse in the second quarter of 2020 with a drop of a staggering 23.1 m/bpd compared to last year, and a drop of 9.3 m/bpd for the full year of 2020. The massive supply-demand imbalance has led to a steep uptick in crude oil stockpiling, which will continue to drag on the oil product prices in the months to come. The OPEC+ cuts amounting to 9.7 million barrels per day (m/bpd), officially in motion since 1 May 2020, have caused prices to tick upward once again. But in the short-term, it will not be enough to balance out the unparalleled demand destruction.

An infected bunker fuel market
In a matter of months, the oil and bunker fuel markets have been turned upside down. Oil market volatility is at an all-time high, as implied by the oil volatility index (OVX), even exceeding the volatility of equity markets. The simultaneous supply and demand shocks have sent bunker prices racing towards previous low levels with very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) trading at $246 per MT on 5 May 2020 in Singapore.

The current upheaval has collapsed marine gas oil low-sulfur (MGO LS) prices at the fastest pace in recent memory, even exceeding the demise of the Great Financial Crisis and oil crash in 2014. Since the MGO LS price peaked in Singapore at $744 per MT on 8 January 2020, the price has declined 67% in 84 workdays, settling at $243 per MT on 5 May, essentially a market breakdown in a couple of months.

In 2008, the MGO LS price peaked at $1,360 per MT and before starting a prolonged descent, bottoming out at $354 per MT after 174 days, a 74% collapse from the peak. While it took over two years to settle at a new peak at $1,075 per MT on 11 April 2011, the prices never recovered to previous high levels. Past crises and price shocks serve as a reminder that the recovery is nowhere as rap-id as the collapse, and although the nature of the current crisis is different from the previous ones, a price recovery is not likely to follow a sharp v-shaped curve.

“Marine bunker fuel prices in Singapore have collapsed at the fastest rate since the Global Financial Crisis. If the past is anything to go by in this case, the ascent from the doldrums will be nowhere near the same rate as the descent from the peak,” says Sand.

The post-IMO 2020 reality
High-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) can also be used in some power plants, but the scrubber-fitted fleet still generate the bulk of demand for HSFO. As of May 2020, the scrubber-fitted fleet stands at 2,893 ships, or 2.9% of the combined fleet in terms of ships, but equal to 15.6% of total fleet when looking at deadweight ton (source: Clarksons).

Bunker sales in Singapore illustrate how HSFO is still in demand, constituted by scrubber-fitted ships. Sales for Q1 came in at 12,716 tonnes, 83% of which were low-sulfur fuels, while 17% was HSFO. In total, 8.8 million tonnes of VLSFO were sold, a jump of 83% from the fourth quarter of 2019. This dramatic change in bunker sales is similarly seen in the ports of Rotterdam and Panama. In Rotterdam, the largest bunkering hub in Europe, the low-sulfur to high-sulfur bunker fuel sales ratio came in at 74% to 26%, with VLSFO accounting for 42% of total sales. In Panama, 93% of the 1.3 million tonnes of total bunker sold was VLSFO.

The Panamanian bunker sales highlight the issue of HSFO unavailability. Bunker suppliers have adjust-ed to the IMO 2020 demand, cleaning tanks and storage to accommodate low-sulfur fuels, which is making it increasingly difficult to source HSFO in the spot market. When combining the hassle of sourc-ing HSFO and the VLSFO-HSFO spread at extraordinarily low levels, it is likely that some scrubber-fitted ships could even opt to burn VLSFO.

“Bunker sales in major bunkering hubs underscores the transformation that IMO 2020 sulfur regulation has brought with it. Prior to the implementation, the industry was worried about the availability of low-sulfur bunker fuels. Now in April 2020, the availability of HSFO seems to be the most pressing issue in some places – next to that of quality,” Sand says.

Source: BIMCOLow bunker prices are supporting earnings
Although scrubber owners have seen their investment payback period extended substantially in recent weeks, it is not all cloudy days when looking past the scrubber economics. The lower bunker fuel prices are partly buoying earnings amidst challenging markets conditions.

The VLSFO prices in Singapore averaged $245 per MT in April, a massive cost saving from the January average of $664 per MT. If assuming bunker consumption of 40 MT per day, shipowners are set to save $16,760 per day when going by the averages of January and April. With the lower cost of sailing, some companies have started to sail around the Cape of Good Hope on the Asia-Europe back-haul instead of paying steep toll dues to transit the Suez Canal.

“The depth of the coronavirus crisis and the shape of any potential recovery will ultimately determine how the oil and bunker prices develop in the coming months. With OPEC+ cuts implemented, oil demand must now recover to counteract the massive supply overhang,” says Sand.

(Source: BIMCO)


As more and more suppliers arrange search parties [pun for: conducting cost-benefits analysis], significant time and costs associated with shipping is seldom recovered, and the future looks grim for suppliers who have not evaluated onshoring options. In fact, the supply chain impact may be significant as the maritime industry prepares for one of the most significant changes in its recent history: IMO 2020 rules that will be met with escalating costs and operational challenges.

What is IMO 2020? What is the impact?

Starting January 1, 2020, all ships operating in the open sea must comply with stricter environmental regulation set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO 2020), aiming to reduce sulphur oxide emissions from sea vessels by 85%.

Operational challenges will be considerable, and the costs astronomical, with a total global impact in excess of $1 trillion over five years, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates.

While the onus for compliance falls on carriers, price volatility will continue with anticipated service disruptions as thousands of ships are taken out of the market to fit equipment called scrubbers (or a switch to low-sulfur fuel or use of liquidized natural gas). In fact, overall prices of container transportation and freight rates have already increased significantly, including one indicator—the Baltic Dry Index—that surged in September to its highest since November 2010.

Fleets will consider factors such as the age of their vessels, trading routes and locational availability of the various fuel options. However, with concerns around demand outstripping supply, fuel costs will increase along logistics timelines and availability of shipping. These costs and implications will be passed down to those shipping materials.

What’s the best option for shippers today?

We would be remiss to say that there are no benefits to offshoring, but the concept became too common practice. Many companies moved production to low-cost countries, worried that competitors would gain a cost advantage; fixating on a component’s unit price rather the total cost of ownership, which oftentimes results in a 20% to 30% miscalculation of actual offshoring costs. Some of the most commonly cited costs include inventory carrying costs, shipping, travel expenses and communications issues, rising offshore wages, as well as intellectual property risks.

Today, many U.S. manufacturers are reevaluating production and sourcing locations and are realizing major benefits of reshoring for large volume of high-quality products.

In the molded rubber category, an uptick in reshoring began years ago with motivations tied to quality standards and reducing supply chain exposure. This resurgence was largely due to an unbalanced increase in production costs with a steady, and even declining standard for quality. For example, from 2000 to 2016, indexed manufacturing labor costs increased 400% in China, compared to only 2% in the U.S.

In the last year, however, macro trends, trade war realities and regulations have further made the case clear for onshoring across industries, as OEMs realize the total costs of ownership of Made in USA components to be lower on average and declining.

Because of this—and impending IMO 2020 compliance—the supplier and OEM partnership will become more important than ever before, and companies that can source a local supplier will gain the advantage.

What to look for in a parts supplier?

When a shipment isn’t crossing international borders or taking a long voyage over water, logistics costs are lower, far less complex and ensure a higher confidence of on-time delivery.

Whether doing business locally or across borders, when producing or assembling parts, OEMs should turn to suppliers that can truly address logistical gaps and overall manufacturability through design enhancements, advanced product quality planning and material offsets. Time to market can be reduced by leveraging fast prototyping, development and production, with secondary operations. For example, manufacturers often find it easier and more cost-effective for part suppliers to perform various assembly operations. This can range from simple packaging of various components to highly automated cells for part assembly and boxing.

Along with automated production processes, OEMs should source vertically integrated suppliers that work as true partners, from conception to commercialization. If you must continue to do business with foreign manufacturers, make sure they understand the pace needed to launch new products, process efficiency techniques, like design for manufacturability, and can produce parts to exacting specifications. Don’t sacrifice quality or reliability, and never allow maritime industry changes to delay shipping or increase costs for parts that can be made domestically.

Steve Anton is president of Rahco Rubber Inc., a vertically integrated manufacturer of custom-engineered, precision molded rubber components and sealing solutions.

Source:
https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/article/22028676/lost-at-sea-the-impact-of-new-maritime-trade-regulations


Shell has carried out trials with 19 shipowners to test its new 0.5pc sulphur content marine fuel in preparation for new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) rules next year.

The shipowners took part in the trials at ports across the world. Shell will be carrying out further tests with customers at New Orleans, Rotterdam and Singapore.

The trials are being conducted in advance of the IMO’s sulphur cap, which will limit ships to burning fuels with 0.5pc sulphur content from 1 January next year, down from the current cap of 3.5pc.

The new fuel performed correctly and the switch did not require extra workload for engine crews, Shell said.

The company has tested its 0.5pc fuel on one of its own vessels — the Silver Carolyn — out of Singapore.

Last month, Shell launched a new lubricant designed to be used in conjunction with 0.5pc marine fuels in two-stroke engines.


The shipping and bunker sectors spent years in preparation for the historic changes imposed by the International Maritime Organization’s global low sulfur mandate, IMO 2020.

But no sooner did the new rules kick in than market participants had to urgently confront a collapse in crude oil prices and obstructed tradeflows, as the world was gripped by the deadly effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and lockdowns and social distancing became the new norm.

“IMO 2020 has got lost somewhere. But that’s how shipping is. There’s always something around the corner,” a shipbroker said.

The IMO 0.5% sulfur limit rule, planned years back and finally implemented from January 1, 2020, forced shipowners to either switch to cleaner marine fuels or continue using high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) but install scrubber units.

Alternative fuels are also a solution but their reach still remains limited, with very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) emerging as the chief marine fuel choice. Refiners adjusted their crude slate accordingly, and suppliers increasingly invested in storage and barge infrastructure to boost availability of such fuels to quench the shipping sector’s thirst.

VLSFO blends have risen to the forefront despite some initial concerns about a drastic escalation in bunker fuel quality issues worldwide due to their use, particularly related to sediment and sludge formation, cold flow properties and stability.

Rising VLSFO consumption comes even as some environmental groups have said that VLSFO blends with high aromatic content contribute to significant black carbon emissions and should therefore be banned as their consumption is detrimental to the environment.

With some of the challenges of IMO 2020 still not fully resolved, the plunge in crude oil prices has come as a rude shock to many, with demand destruction hitting players in the oil and bunker industry hard.

OPEC expects global oil pandemic demand destruction of 6.8 million b/d year on year in 2020 to 92.82 million b/d, with April seeing the largest downturn at about 20 million b/d, according to the organization’s April monthly oil market report.

Still, oil output from Saudi Arabia is expected to remain elevated, when there is no such real requirement on the consumption side.

“We are heading for a period of massive supply-demand imbalance, where the oil supply is high, but major economies are in lockdown. With land-based oil storage potentially approaching full capacity fast, it is limited how much additional oil can be imported,” BIMCO, the world’s largest international shipping association, said in a statement recently.

Go deeper: Podcast – Q1 earnings give snapshot of pandemic’s impact on oil demand

Risk-loving oil traders have already time chartered VLCCs for floating storage, either because they could not sell and had no option but to store cargoes, or in anticipation of higher returns in coming months.

To cater to IMO 2020 demand, there are companies that have also been stockpiling low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) material, both on landed tanks and on floaters, reflecting the steepening contango in the LSFO market in major bunkering hubs such as Singapore.

The contango at the front of the Singapore marine fuel 0.5% swaps curve, for example, widened to average $9.56/mt for the month of April, from the March average of $5.11/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed. During April, the outright value of Singapore marine fuel 0.5% cargo dropped 25.96% to average $214.84/mt as compared to the March average of $290.17/mt, Platts data showed. From May 1-11, the average outright value of the product was $221.62/mt.

Singapore marine fuel

But floating storage will also eventually run out if the contango remains supported, sources said.

“It’s like you have a sick man already and you punch him in the stomach,” a shipowner said explaining the predicament of some players in the industry.

Meanwhile, some trading and oil companies with huge exposures to VLSFOs and inappropriate bunker fuel hedging tools are getting hurt, while shipowners who opted for scrubbers as an IMO 2020 compliance solution for their vessels are contending with the prospect of poor payback economics as the price difference between 3.5% and 0.5% bunker fuel has narrowed dramatically.

Last year, some industry sources estimated the VLSFO-HSFO spread would shoot up and remain elevated, well over the $300/mt mark for a sustained period of time in 2020.  But that has certainly not played out.

“I never really expected this kind of VLSFO-HSFO spread,” another shipowner source said.

VLSFO vs HSFO spread

“If you don’t have good processes in place, you will be in trouble,” a credit risk manager said, adding that banking was also putting a “circuit breaker” on lending, particularly after the Hin Leong debacle, amplifying the devastation.

When Singapore’s Hin Leong sneezed 

A case in point is Singapore’s embattled Hin Leong, which recently became the subject of an investigation by the Singapore police force for its conduct, or rather, misconduct.

The investigation came after Hin Leong’s managing director Lim Oon Kuin, or OK Lim, and his son and company director Lim Chee Meng said in two separate court filings for bankruptcy protection dated April 17 that the company suffered about $800 million in futures losses over the years that were not reflected in the financial statements.

OK Lim said in one filing that payments made by Hin Leong Trading or HLT to satisfy margin calls for derivatives losses were reflected as “accounts receivables” and he had given instructions to the finance department to hide the losses and told them that he would be responsible if anything went wrong.

“Further, over the years, HLT had, on my instructions, sold a substantial part of the inventory and used the proceeds as the general funds of HLT, even though the inventory was the subject of inventory financing provided by bank lenders,” Lim said.

Ongoing developments at Hin Leong, which came to the limelight as banks grew impatient to recover their loans from the company amid the coronavirus pandemic, have had huge repercussions.

The situation has driven the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Monetary Authority of Singapore and Enterprise Singapore to issue a joint statement in April saying that the country’s oil trading, bunkering sectors and banking system remained resilient despite the challenges posed by a drop in global demand for energy as well as developments related to HLT.

Hin Leong’s subsidiary, Ocean Bunkering Services, was Singapore’s third-biggest accredited bunker supplier by volume in 2019, and the biggest in 2018, according to MPA. OBS was heard to have cancelled all its bunker spot sales for delivery from April 18 onwards.

As the HLT situation unfolds, two new players – Minerva Bunkering and TFG Marine – have been granted bunker suppliers’ licenses in the Port of Singapore last month and are likely to play a pivotal position in filling the void.

Singapore bunker sales

Still, the industry remains anxious, as conditions in the world’s largest bunkering port are ripe for consolidation, including exits, sources said.

“IMO 2020 was challenging enough and now there are other issues,” a bunker supplier said. “But it’s going to be okay as long as you can sit in the game long enough.”

In the end, the words of Winston Churchill might resonate with many, given the current circumstances.

“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”

Source:
https://blogs.platts.com/2020/05/12/shipping-bunkers-coronavirus-trade-imo-2020/


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